Fortune | FORTUNE 07月19日 23:14
While Trump celebrates the demise of Stephen Colbert’s show, the economics of late-night TV are crumbling
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美国电视行业正经历深刻变革,以《史蒂芬·科尔伯特深夜秀》的停播为标志,晚间脱口秀这一曾备受欢迎的节目类型面临严峻挑战。广告收入锐减、年轻观众流失至流媒体平台,以及高昂的体育赛事版权成本,迫使电视网做出艰难的财务决策。尽管CBS母公司派拉蒙全球声称停播是出于财务考量,但科尔伯伯对特朗普政府的尖锐批评,以及近期派拉蒙支付给特朗普的巨额和解金,引发了关于停播背后是否存在政治考量的猜测。行业观察家和编剧工会对此表示担忧,认为这可能影响言论自由,并预示着晚间脱口秀黄金时代的落幕,行业未来充满了不确定性。

💰 **行业经济下行与广告收入锐减**:电视行业整体经济状况不佳,晚间节目的广告收入从2018年的约4.39亿美元骤降至去年的2.20亿美元,这迫使电视网不得不削减成本。观众,尤其是年轻男性群体,正加速转向流媒体服务,使得传统电视平台的变现能力受到严重威胁。

📺 **观众流失与流媒体冲击**:Nielsen数据显示,流媒体服务(如YouTube和Netflix)的观众消费量首次超过了ABC、CBS和NBC等传统广播电视网以及有线电视网络。这种观众习惯的转变对依赖广告收入的传统电视节目构成了巨大挑战。

⚖️ **经济决策还是政治考量?**:CBS母公司派拉蒙全球宣布《史蒂芬·科尔伯特深夜秀》将于明年五月停播,声称纯属财务决策。然而,鉴于科尔伯特对特朗普政府的持续批评,以及派拉蒙近期为解决特朗普的诉讼而支付的巨额款项,有观点质疑此举是否与政治考量有关,甚至引发了编剧工会呼吁调查停播是否为“贿赂”以讨好政府以促成公司合并。

🎙️ **晚间脱口秀黄金时代的终结**:此次停播被视为一个时代的结束,晚间脱口秀作为评论与社区的结合平台,为喜剧提供了重要的发声渠道。业内人士担忧,这可能意味着公共讨论空间的减少,并预示着晚间脱口秀在传统娱乐网上的未来堪忧,甚至可能出现“特朗普可能比他最猛烈的喜剧批评者活得更久”的局面。

🔮 **行业未来不确定性**:除了科尔伯特的节目,其他晚间脱口秀主持人如吉米·坎摩尔的合同也将在明年到期,且他本人也表达过对节目持续性的疑虑。电视网正在探索削减成本的替代方案,例如减少节目时长或取消乐队等。CBS取消了科尔伯特节目后的《午夜之后》节目,进一步表明了其退出晚间竞争的意图,为行业前景蒙上了阴影。

The network’s bombshell announcement late Thursday that the “Late Show” will end next May takes away President Donald Trump’s most prominent TV critic and the most popular entertainment program in its genre.

The television industry’s declining economic health means similar hard calls are already being made with personalities and programming, with others to be faced in the future. For the late-night genre, there are unique factors to consider.

As recently as 2018, broadcast networks took in an estimated $439 million in advertising revenue for its late-night programs, according to the advertising firm Guidelines. Last year, that number dwindled to $220 million.

Once a draw for young men, now they’ve turned away

Late-night TV was a particular draw for young men, considered the hardest-to-get and most valuable demographic for advertisers. Increasingly, these viewers are turning to streaming services, either to watch something else entirely or catch highlights of the late-night shows, which are more difficult for the networks to monetize.

More broadly, the much-predicted takeover of viewers by streaming services is coming to pass. The Nielsen company reported that during the last two months, for the first time ever, more people consumed programming on services like YouTube and Netflix than on ABC, CBS and NBC or any cable network.

Networks and streamers spent roughly $70 billion on entertainment shows and $30 billion for sports rights last year, said Brian Wieser, CEO of Madison & Wall, an advertising consultant and data services firm. Live sports is the most dependable magnet for viewers and costs for its rights are expected to increase 8% a year over the next decade. With television viewership declining in general, it’s clear where savings will have to come from.

Wieser said he does not know whether Colbert’s show is profitable or not for CBS and parent company Paramount Global, but he knows the direction in which it is headed. “The economics of television are weak,” he said.

In a statement announcing the cancellation, George Cheeks, Paramount Global’s president and chief executive officer, said that “This is purely a financial decision against a challenging backdrop in late night. It is not related in any way to the show’s performance, content or other matters happening at Paramount.”

Cheeks’ problem is that not everyone believes him.

Colbert is a relentless critic of Trump, and earlier this week pointedly criticized Paramount’s decision to settle Trump’s lawsuit against CBS over a “60 Minutes” interview with Kamala Harris. He called Paramount’s $16 million payment to Trump a “big fat bribe,” since the company is seeking the administration’s approval of its merger with Skydance Media.

On Friday, the Writers Guild of America called for an investigation by New York’s attorney general into whether Colbert’s cancellation is itself a bribe, “sacrificing free speech to curry favor with the Trump administration as the company looks for merger approval.”

CBS’ decision made this a pivotal week for the future of television and radio programming. Congress stripped federal funding for PBS and NPR, threatening the future of shows on those outlets.

Journey Gunderson, executive director of the National Comedy Center, called the decision to end Colbert’s show the end of an era.

“Late-night television has historically been one of comedy’s most audience-accessible platforms — a place where commentary meets community, night after night,” Gunderson said. “This isn’t just the end of a show. It’s the quiet removal of one of the few remaining platforms for daily comedic commentary.

Trump celebrates Colbert’s demise

Trump, who has called in the past for CBS to terminate Colbert’s contract, celebrated the show’s upcoming demise. “I absolutely love that Colbert got fired,” the president wrote on Truth Social. “His talent was even less than his ratings.”

Some experts questioned whether CBS could have explored other ways to save money on Colbert. NBC, for example, has cut costs by eliminating the band on Seth Meyers’ late-night show and curtailing Jimmy Fallon’s “Tonight” show to four nights a week.

Could CBS have saved more money by cutting off the show immediately, instead of letting it run until next May, which sets up an awkward “lame duck” period? Then again, Colbert will keep working until his contract runs out; CBS would have had to keep paying him anyway.

CBS recently cancelled the “After Midnight” show that ran after Colbert. But the network had signaled earlier this year that it was prepared to continue that show until host Taylor Tomlinson decided that she wanted to leave, noted Bill Carter, author of “The Late Shift.”

“It is a very sad day for CBS that they are getting out of the late-night race,” Andy Cohen, host of Bravo’s “Watch What Happens Live,” told The Associated Press. “I mean, they are turning off the lights after the news.”

Colbert, if he wanted to continue past next May, would likely be able to find a streaming service willing to pay him, Wieser said. But the future of late-night comedy on the entertainment networks is genuinely at risk. Trump, in fact, may outlast his fiercest comic critics. Jon Stewart, once a weeknight fixture, works one night a week at “The Daily Show” for Paramount’s Comedy Central, a network that seldom produces much original programming any more.

ABC’s Jimmy Kimmel, who was chided on social media by Trump on Friday — “I hear Jimmy Kimmel is next” — has a contract that also runs out next year. Kimmel, 57, openly wondered in a Variety interview before signing his latest three-year contract extension how long he wanted to do it. He’s hosted his show since 2003.

“I have moments where I go, I cannot do this anymore,” Kimmel told Variety in 2022. “And I have moments where I go, what am I gonna do with my life if I’m not doing this anymore?’ It’s a very complicated thing … I’m not going to do this forever.”

Colbert, Kimmel and Stewart were all nominated for Emmy awards this week.

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