New Yorker 07月19日 06:19
Why Trump’s Epstein Problem Didn’t Go Away
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文章深入探讨了特朗普政府在爱泼斯坦事件中的处理方式及其对MAGA阵营造成的深远影响。尽管特朗普试图平息事件并要求支持者“向前看”,但其核心支持者和媒体意见领袖对此表示不满,认为总统未能兑现其“人民的代言人”承诺。爱泼斯坦事件的持续发酵,以及此前特朗普在对伊朗的军事行动和埃隆·马斯克的行政职务问题上的决策,都加剧了MAGA内部的裂痕。文章指出,特朗普的“局外人”形象正面临挑战,一旦被视为与建制派沆瀣一气,将对其政治吸引力造成危险。此外,文章还提及了公共媒体机构面临的严峻资金削减问题,对农村广播等领域可能产生的负面影响。

🔍 爱泼斯坦事件暴露特朗普承诺与行动的脱节:特朗普在爱泼斯坦事件中的处理方式,特别是其政府发布的“无更多信息”声明以及特朗普本人要求支持者“向前看”的指令,未能平息公众和部分支持者的疑虑。此前,有报道称特朗普曾为爱泼斯坦的生日专辑留言,尽管他否认并威胁起诉,但随后又指示公开部分证据,这种摇摆态度引发了质疑,尤其是在其核心支持者看来,这与其作为“人民代言人”揭露精英阴谋的形象相悖。

💥 MAGA阵营因爱泼斯坦事件出现分裂:爱泼斯坦事件的持续关注,以及此前特朗普政府在对伊朗的军事行动和埃隆·马斯克被逐出政府等问题上的决策,都加剧了MAGA内部的紧张关系。许多支持者,包括高调的MAGA代言人和播客主持人,对政府在信息披露上的不透明表示不满。这种不满表明,特朗普的支持并非无条件,而是建立在他能代表民众对抗“邪恶精英”的信念之上,当这一信念受到动摇时,阵营内部便出现了裂痕。

📉 特朗普“局外人”形象受损,政治吸引力面临挑战:文章认为,特朗普在爱泼斯坦事件和伊朗问题上的举动,可能令他在那些并非MAGA狂热支持者眼中,显得与其他政治家无异。这种“与建制派同流合污”的印象对他至关重要。他曾凭借“局外人”的身份和承诺打破常规而获得支持,一旦这一身份被质疑,尤其是在围绕爱泼斯坦事件处理不当的情况下,将对其政治吸引力构成严重威胁,可能侵蚀其在选民中的信誉。

📊 部分共和党人对信息披露不满度低于民主党,显示党内分化复杂:尽管绝大多数美国人对政府在爱泼斯坦事件中的信息披露不满意,但一项CNN民调显示,共和党内部的不满比例低于民主党。这表明,部分共和党人可能在遵循特朗普的指示,或者他们对该事件本身并不十分在意。同时,也有迹象表明,部分MAGA影响者正利用媒体对特朗普的攻击来重新团结,这显示出MAGA阵营内部对事件的反应是复杂且多层次的。

📢 公共媒体资金削减可能影响农村地区信息获取:文章的另一部分提到了对公共媒体组织(如NPR和PBS)的严厉资金削减,这可能对农村地区的广播产生不利影响。虽然这部分内容与特朗普和爱泼斯坦事件的直接联系较弱,但它反映了政府政策对信息传播渠道的潜在冲击,并与文章整体探讨的政治和媒体环境相关联。

“May every day be another wonderful secret.” The latest developments in the Trump-Epstein affair, and the fracturing of the MAGA base. And, then, E. Tammy Kim on how drastic funding cuts to public-media organizations will harm rural radio. Plus:

Illustration by Till Lauer

Since Donald Trump returned to office, in January, news stories of incredible importance have flashed past without drawing the sustained focus they deserve. So, of course, we’ve all spent the past two weeks talking about years-old conspiracy theories surrounding the death of Jeffrey Epstein. Recently, Trump’s Justice Department, having teased the release of further files in the Epstein case, said that there was nothing more to see here, after all—and Trump himself commanded his base to move on.

But his base—or, at least, many high-profile spokespeople for it—did not move on, and neither, so far, has the news cycle. Last night, the Wall Street Journal reported that, in 2003, Trump contributed a “bawdy” message to an album for Epstein’s fiftieth birthday. (“A pal is a wonderful thing. Happy Birthday—and may every day be another wonderful secret.”) Trump denied having written the message and pledged to sue the Journal, but he also seemed, finally, to cave to the pressure somewhat, ordering Pam Bondi, the Attorney General, to produce “any and all pertinent Grand Jury testimony” in Epstein’s case, “subject to Court approval.” But this, still, isn’t everything, so the pressure campaign could continue.

This summer, I’ve been guest-writing the Fault Lines column, doing my best to imitate the inimitable Jay Caspian Kang while he’s been away. Recently, I’ve found myself mining the widening fractures in both the Democratic and Republican parties, the latter emerging around Trump’s strikes on Iran and Elon Musk’s ouster from the Administration and proposals for a new third party. In terms of intraparty tension, Epsteingate, if you will, has blown both of these controversies out of the water; pretty much everyone—from MAGA diehards to nominally apolitical bro podcasters—seems pissed about the lack of disclosure. As I write in a new essay today, the episode has shown that the worship toward Trump from his most ardent supporters “is not unconditional but predicated on the idea that he’s a tribune of the people seeking to expose nefarious élites.” After years of more or less unwavering backing from the base, this feels, in some ways, like a turning point.

Perhaps, anyway. It wouldn’t surprise me if the news cycle once again spins on to other matters, with Trump still commanding strong support on the right. Earlier this week, a poll commissioned by CNN found that while a mere three per cent of Americans are satisfied with how much information the government has released about Epstein, just forty per cent of Republicans reported being dissatisfied—a lower figure than among Democrats, and evidence that parts of the party may be falling in line behind Trump’s Epstein directives, or never cared much to begin with. Yesterday, Harry Enten, CNN’s chief data analyst, noted that Trump’s approval rating among Republicans is, if anything, up compared with his pre-Epstein numbers. This morning, Politico reported that the Journal story has given MAGA influencers the chance to reunite around their shared love of bashing the press.

Yet, in my recent column about Iran, I raised the possibility, at least in the long run, that the air strikes, which appeared to contradict Trump’s “America First” promises, might chip away at the President’s credibility by feeding an impression that he’s just like every other politician—particularly among those who were not MAGA zealots to begin with. The same can be said of his recent conduct around the Epstein story. And for Trump, who has built his appeal on outsider bona fides, being seen on the side of the establishment is highly dangerous.

Even the Iran strikes were one of those news stories that seemed to flash by. But their political impact endures. This week, the podcaster Joe Rogan, an influential Trump booster last year, mocked the Administration’s Epstein stance. Rather than release compelling new information about Epstein’s crimes, Rogan said, sarcastically, Trump could “just bomb Iran. Then, everybody forgets about it.” We’ll see how Trump tries to change the subject—and whether it works.

Read today’s column »

For more: The journalist Michael Wolff, who recorded hundreds of hours of interviews with Epstein, speaks with David Remnick about the political fallout of Trump’s attempt to close the case. Listen to The New Yorker Radio Hour »


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特朗普 爱泼斯坦 MAGA 政治分裂 信息披露
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