All Content from Business Insider 07月19日 01:47
War-weary Russian banks are reportedly eyeing state bailouts as bad loans pile up
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文章指出,在乌克兰战争持续的第三个年头,俄罗斯经济显露出挣扎迹象。部分大型银行正考虑在未来一年内向俄罗斯央行寻求紧急援助,因为银行的资产负债表状况比官方数据所示更糟。虽然俄罗斯银行业整体官方数据看似稳健,但信贷质量下滑、不良贷款增加以及消费者和小型企业拖欠付款的情况日益严重,这都表明了经济承受战争成本的压力。高企的借贷成本和国家财富基金的快速消耗也加剧了这种担忧。

📈 **部分俄国银行考虑向央行寻求紧急援助**:据报道,至少三家俄罗斯大型银行正在私下讨论,如果未来一年内财务状况未能改善,将向俄罗斯央行申请紧急救助。这些银行被俄罗斯央行归类为对国家金融系统至关重要的机构,其资产负债表状况比官方数据所显示的更差,尤其是在累积不良贷款方面。

📉 **俄经济受乌克兰战争影响显现,信贷质量下降**:在乌克兰战争持续的第三年,俄罗斯经济正显露挣扎迹象。虽然官方数据显示银行业整体稳健,但银行的信贷质量正在下降,尤其是对小型企业和消费者的贷款出现严重逾期。这反映出经济难以承受战争的持续成本。

🏦 **央行数据与实际情况可能存在差异**:尽管俄罗斯央行数据显示2024年银行业利润创纪录,且整体不良贷款比例较低(截至2024年10月公司借款人问题贷款约为4%),但内部文件和知情人士透露,银行的实际财务状况可能比官方数据更严峻。消费者贷款逾期率已升至10.5%,表明信贷风险正在累积。

💼 **高层担忧与经济下行压力并存**:包括俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行(Sberbank)CEO在内的高管已表达了对未来一年财务前景的担忧,指出贷款质量下降和企业债务重组增加。同时,俄罗斯正面临高企的借贷成本和国家财富基金的快速消耗,经济增长也出现放缓,第一季度GDP萎缩了0.6%。

The Kremlin in Moscow.

Some big banks in Russia are reportedly getting ready to ask for an emergency bailout if their finances don't improve over the next year.

Executives in at least three of the country's big banks have considered the risk that they may need to ask Russia's central bank for a bailout in the next year, Bloomberg reported this week.

The banks, which the Bank of Russia has classified as critically important to the nation's financial system, have had private discussions about how to approach the central bank for a bailout, the report said, adding that the discussions were growing more urgent.

The talks took place because the lenders' balance sheets look worse than what the official data suggests, Bloomberg said, citing the people and internal documents. The likelihood of asking for a bailout will depend on how many bad loans the banks continue to accumulate this year, the sources said.

Stress in the banking sector is another sign of how Russia's economy has struggled to bear the costs of its war in Ukraine, though its banking system looks to be on solid footing, according to the official statistics.

Russian banks took in a record 4 trillion rubles, or $50.9 billion in profits in 2024. Monthly net profits also swelled by a third in June compared to the same level last year, according to central bank data released on Friday.

Russia's central bank also says the nation has a low share of bad debt overall. The share of "problem loans" to corporate borrowers stood at around 4% as of October 2024, according to the Bank of Russia's latest Financial Stability Review.

The review acknowledged that the creditworthiness of Russia's corporate sector has "slightly declined," due to "serious delinquencies seriously increasing" among small businesses.

Consumers are also falling behind on payments, with the share of delinquent unsecured consumer loans that were more than 90 days delinquent rising to 10.5% at the end of the first quarter.

The share of unsecured consumer loans more than 90 days delinquent surged past 10% at the end of the first quarter

Top bankers in Russia have also expressed concern about their finances and the outlook for the coming year.

Herman Gref, the CEO Sberbank, said the bank's path forward for the next year would "not be easy" when speaking to investors at a meeting in June. He pointed to the declining quality of loans and more companies restructuring their debt.

"I hope, as always, we will be able to find joint plans to get through these difficult times," he said.

Concerns are rising throughout Russia's economy as the Ukraine war continues through its third year.

Borrowing costs remain near all-time-highs. The Bank of Russia raised its interest rate to a record 21% last year, before trimming it to 20% in June.

The nation is also running a steep budget deficit and quickly depleting its rainy day fund. Liquid assets in Russia's national wealth fund dropped to 28 trillion rubles, or $35.6 billion in May, down around 71% from levels at the start of the Ukraine war, according to an analysis from the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Russia's economy shrank 0.6% in the first quarter of this year, according to the nation's federal statistics service.

Read the original article on Business Insider

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俄罗斯经济 银行业 乌克兰战争 金融风险 银行援助
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