Fortune | FORTUNE 4小时前
Fed board member and possible Powell replacement says bank should cut rate this month because growth is slowing ‘significantly’
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美联储理事Christopher Waller表示,美国经济显现疲软迹象,消费者支出放缓,就业增长降温。他认为,在就业市场进一步恶化前,美联储应降低借贷成本以支撑支出和增长。Waller指出,尽管经济仍在增长,但势头已显著减弱,这可能威胁到美联储的充分就业目标。关于特朗普政府的关税政策,Waller认为其仅会暂时推升通胀,不应成为推迟降息的理由,并建议政策制定者应关注核心通胀,而核心通胀正接近2%的目标。

📉 经济放缓迹象明显:美联储理事Christopher Waller指出,美国经济增长势头显著减弱,消费者支出放缓,就业增长降温,这可能威胁到实现充分就业的目标。

✂️ 建议降低借贷成本:为应对经济放缓,Waller建议美联储应降低借贷成本,以刺激消费支出和经济增长,尤其是在就业市场进一步恶化之前采取行动。

⚖️ 关税对通胀影响有限:Waller认为,总统的关税政策仅会暂时推升通胀,不应成为推迟降息的理由。他主张应“看穿”关税效应,聚焦于核心通胀,目前核心通胀已接近美联储2%的目标。

🏛️ 内部意见分歧:美联储6月会议纪要显示,仅少数委员支持7月降息,而其他委员则认为应维持利率不变,因通胀仍高于2%。消费者物价指数(CPI)6月份同比上涨2.7%,为四个月来最快增速。

🗣️ 其他潜在支持者:包括前美联储理事Kevin Warsh在内的其他潜在美联储主席人选也公开表示支持近期降息,认为总统对现任主席鲍威尔的政策感到沮丧是有道理的。

Christopher Waller, a member of the Fed’s governing board, said in a speech in New York City that the economy is showing signs of weakening, with consumer spending slowing and job gains cooling. The Fed should reduce borrowing costs to shore up spending and growth before the job market weakens further, Waller said.

“The economy is still growing, but its momentum has slowed significantly,” he said, adding that the slowdown threatens the Fed’s goal of maximum employment.

At the same time, President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs are likely to only lift inflation temporarily and aren’t a reason to postpone rate cuts, Waller said.

“Tariffs have boosted, and will continue to boost, inflation a bit above the (Fed’s) 2% objective this year,” Waller said, but policymakers should “look through tariff effects and focus on underlying inflation,” which he said is nearing the 2% goal.

Waller has been mentioned as a potential replacement for Powell when the current chair’s term expires in May 2026, or perhaps earlier if Trump takes the unprecedented step of firing Powell. Trump has threatened to fire Powell this year but on Wednesday said it was “highly unlikely” he would take such a step.

For his part, Powell has said the Fed wants to see the impact of the duties on prices and the economy before making any moves.

Waller, a Trump appointee, has previously said that he would support a rate cut in July. Michelle Bowman, also a Trump appointee, has also spoken in favor of a cut.

Minutes to the Fed’s June 17-18 meeting said that only “a couple” of the 19 members of the central bank’s interest-rate setting committee supported a cut in July.

Other participants — the minutes didn’t say how many — said that the Fed should keep rates unchanged this year, since inflation remains above 2%. Consumer prices rose 2.7% in June from a year ago, the fastest pace in four months.

Other potential replacements for Powell have also publicly expressed support for cutting rates soon, including Kevin Warsh, a former member of the Fed’s board who stepped down in 2011. Warsh, currently a fellow at the Hoover Institution, said on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures” earlier this week that he supported rate cuts.

“The president’s right to be frustrated with Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve,” Warsh said.

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美联储 降息 经济增长 通货膨胀 货币政策
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