Fortune | FORTUNE 07月18日 03:33
Trump’s bid to add cane sugar to Coke would cost America thousands of agricultural jobs, trade group warns
index_new5.html
../../../zaker_core/zaker_tpl_static/wap/tpl_guoji1.html

 

美国总统特朗普正推动可口可乐在美国市场的产品中使用蔗糖,取代目前普遍使用的高果糖玉米糖浆。此举引发美国玉米行业的担忧,认为这将损害农业经济、减少就业并增加外国糖进口。尽管有专家指出,可口可乐对玉米糖浆的需求占比较小,短期内对整体玉米市场影响有限,但此次事件也反映了“Make America Healthy Again”(MAHA)运动对食品行业的潜在影响。玉米行业担心,食品加工商顺应健康趋势的举动可能进一步威胁玉米糖浆的地位,而政府在支持国内农业与推动食品改革之间面临两难,强大的农业游说力量也构成政策调整的阻碍。

✨ 特朗普推动可口可乐转向蔗糖:美国总统特朗普近期宣布,正与可口可乐公司沟通,鼓励其在美国生产的产品中使用蔗糖,以替代当前广泛使用的高果糖玉米糖浆。此举被特朗普称为一项“非常好的举动”,但也立刻引发了美国农业界的广泛关注和担忧,特别是玉米产业。

🌽 玉米行业担忧经济冲击与就业:美国玉米加工商协会等代表性组织对此表示强烈反对,认为替换玉米糖浆将直接损害美国玉米种植者的利益,可能导致数千个与食品加工相关的美国制造岗位流失。此外,他们担心这将增加对外国糖的依赖,从而削弱美国本土农业的竞争力。

📊 专家对市场影响的评估:部分行业专家指出,虽然特朗普政府推动了这一改变,但可口可乐公司对高果糖玉米糖浆的需求量在美国庞大的玉米市场中所占比例极小,估计不到3%。因此,即使可口可乐完全转向蔗糖,对整体玉米市场的短期影响可能仅是“一个小幅波动”。

💡 MAHA运动的象征意义与潜在连锁反应:此次事件被视为“Make America Healthy Again”(MAHA)运动影响力的体现,该运动倡导者常针对超加工食品和食品添加剂。玉米行业担心,这种趋势可能促使更多食品制造商效仿,逐步淘汰玉米糖浆,甚至可能引发对玉米糖浆的更广泛审查或禁令,对农产品市场产生显著的长期价格影响。

⚖️ 农业游说与特朗普政府的政策困境:美国玉米产业拥有强大的游说力量,并且受益于政府的农业补贴和保护性糖业政策。这些政策导致美国本土糖价较高,使得玉米糖浆成为经济实惠的替代品。特朗普政府在支持其农业基本盘与响应消费者对食品健康化的要求之间面临两难,强大的农业游说集团也构成了任何可能威胁玉米糖浆地位的政策调整的巨大阻力。

U.S. corn producers are sounding the alarm on President Donald Trump’s efforts to switch Coca-Cola products away from using corn syrup in favor of cane sugar, claiming the change will wreak havoc on the agricultural industry.

Trump on Wednesday announced efforts to push Coca-Cola to switch to cane sugar for its U.S.-made products, a departure from the abundant and inexpensive corn syrup currently used in most of its products.

“I have been speaking to @CocaCola about using REAL Cane Sugar in Coke in the United States, and they have agreed to do so,” Trump wrote on social media. “I’d like to thank all of those in authority at Coca-Cola. This will be a very good move by them — You’ll see. It’s just better!”

In response, Coca-Cola said it would have “more details on new innovative offerings” soon but did not confirm the switch to cane sugar for U.S. products. The company made an additional statement on Thursday defending its use of high-fructose corn syrup, which it said “has about the same number of calories per serving as table sugar and is metabolized in a similar way by your body.” Coca-Cola declined to comment further.

But the possibility of a shift in sweeteners has left a bad taste in the mouths of corn industry leaders, such as the Corn Refiners Association, a trade group, who fears the sugar swap could put some farmers of the U.S.’s largest crop at a disadvantage.

“Replacing high-fructose corn syrup with cane sugar doesn’t make sense. President Trump stands for American manufacturing jobs, American farmers, and reducing the trade deficit,” Corn Refiners Association CEO John Bode said in a statement on Wednesday. “Replacing high fructose corn syrup with cane sugar would cost thousands of American food manufacturing jobs, depress farm income, and boost imports of foreign sugar, all with no nutritional benefit.”

Factoring in Trump’s tariffs

Changes in demand for corn syrup, such as that used in Coke, would increase demand for cane sugar in Louisiana and Florida, as well as from Central and South America, where the sweetener is heavily tariffed. It could force corn farmers—primarily in Iowa and Illinois—to look for business elsewhere, Brandon McFadden, a professor of food policy economics at the University of Arkansas’ Bumpers College of Agricultural, Food and Life Sciences, told Fortune

The most obvious solution for corn farmers would be to export their crops. But while corn exports have hit record highs this year, Trump’s trade policy with China has completely inhibited the export of corn from the U.S. to the nation, which has previously been a major boon to the U.S. corn industry.

“The exports were looking really good, but they would look even better if we were still supplying China so heavily,” McFadden said.

Other industry experts said these short-term effects are being overstated. Corn syrup production in the U.S. accounts for 410 million bushels of the country’s 15.5 billion bushels of corn, making up less than 3% of the total industry’s total, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Center. With Coca-Cola’s use of high-fructose corn syrup representing a fraction of that fraction, the company making the switch to cane sugar wouldn’t have an outsized impact on the industry as a whole, according to Scott Irvin, the Laurence J. Norton Chair of Agricultural Marketing at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.

“For Coca-Cola to remove it completely would be a pretty small blip in the corn market,” he told Fortune.

Fear of a growing ‘MAHA’ movement

But Trump’s cane sugar push could still have sizable consequences for the corn industry, Irwin said. The change would have a meaningful impact for U.S. food processing giants such as Archer-Daniels-Midland, which produces high-fructose corn syrup. The manufacturer’s stock dropped 6% in pre-market trading on Thursday following Trump’s announcement, though later mostly recovered.

The largest impact of the proposed switch, however, is the symbolic impact of the growing influence of Department of Human Health and Safety Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s controversial “Make America Healthy Again” (MAHA) campaign, Irwin said. Kennedy has repeatedly targeted ultraprocessed foods, including corn syrup, favoring alternatives like cane sugar, despite some nutrition experts asserting the two sugars are essentially chemically identical.

“This is exactly the kind of MAHA move that U.S. [agriculture] fears,” Irwin told Fortune. “There’s clearly a growing consumer backlash captured by the MAHA movement against food additives, chemicals being added, diabetes, obesity—throw it all together.”

As major U.S. food makers acquiesce to pressure from the Trump administration by adding more explicit packaging labels and vowing to remove dyes and seed oils from their products, there’s real concern from the corn industry the administration could outright ban corn syrup, which would have “a real price impact” on the market, according to Irwin.

HHS and the White House did not respond to Fortune’s request for comment.

Trump’s agricultural Catch-22

However, the seemingly unstoppable force of the Trump administration’s MAHA push may meet the immovable object of decades-old, powerful lobbying barriers from U.S. agriculture, putting a damper on the prospect of cane-sugar Coke in the U.S.

In the 1970s, the U.S. protected sugar producers, particularly beet sugar, building on an 18th-century tradition of piling tariffs on sugar imports to insulate the industry. But as the cost of beet and cane sugar increased in the U.S. and decreased globally, U.S. food processors manufactured corn syrup as a cheap alternative. Corn farming is bolstered by subsidies by the U.S. government, and the powerful corn lobby has continued to oppose changes to the U.S. sugar program limiting imports on sugar, ultimately keeping corn syrup on top.

Therefore, according to Irwin, the more effective way to eliminate high-fructose corn syrup would be to weaken the industry by rationalizing U.S. sugar policy.

“An economist’s answer is: Let’s level the playing field by eliminating the high-priced approach from domestically produced sugar,” he said.

Not only is the sugar lobby likely too powerful to be dislodged—but because the Trump administration relies on its large support base of American farmers—it backs policies often friendly to U.S. agriculture. When corn trade groups speak out against threats to high-fructose corn syrup, it puts Trump in a Catch-22.

“It’s just going to be trying to walk that tightrope throughout this administration,” Irwin said.

Fish AI Reader

Fish AI Reader

AI辅助创作,多种专业模板,深度分析,高质量内容生成。从观点提取到深度思考,FishAI为您提供全方位的创作支持。新版本引入自定义参数,让您的创作更加个性化和精准。

FishAI

FishAI

鱼阅,AI 时代的下一个智能信息助手,助你摆脱信息焦虑

联系邮箱 441953276@qq.com

相关标签

特朗普 可口可乐 玉米糖浆 蔗糖 美国农业
相关文章