Fortune | FORTUNE 11小时前
The economy enters its budget shopping era, with consumers doubling down on value even as they ramp up spending
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尽管上个月消费者支出出现增长,显示美国消费者并未完全停止消费,但数据显示出潜在的压力。消费者变得更加挑剔,在非必需品上有所削减,并在必需品上积极寻找优惠。例如,消费者在餐馆消费的实际支出增加,但调查显示他们减少了在外就餐的频率,这表明他们通过选择更便宜的餐厅来获得更高的性价比。同样,在杂货购物方面,消费者购物频率增加但单次支出减少,也反映出他们更倾向于选择优惠商品。家具、电子产品和家电等受关税影响较大的品类销售额下降。亚马逊Prime会员日的销售额增长也主要得益于折扣,以及“先买后付”等支付方式的增加,表明消费者对价格敏感,并优先购买必需品。即使在奢侈品领域,消费者也开始削减开支或转向购买二手奢侈品。通货膨胀的潜在影响以及对关税的担忧,使得消费者在购物时越来越注重价值和优惠。尽管如此,强劲的就业市场和低失业率仍然支撑着消费支出。

📊 消费支出表面增长,实则暗流涌动:尽管六月份零售支出增长了0.6%,但消费者在支出时变得更加谨慎和挑剔。他们倾向于减少非必需品的购买,并在必需品上积极寻找优惠,这表明消费者在精打细算地进行每一笔消费。

🍽️ 餐饮消费模式转变,追求性价比:消费者在餐馆的实际消费额有所增长,但调查显示他们减少了在外就餐的频率。这反映出消费者并非减少外出就餐,而是转向更经济实惠的餐厅,以在有限的预算内获得更好的用餐体验。

🛒 杂货购物更精选,注重优惠:在杂货购物方面,消费者购物的频率有所增加,但每次购物的花费却在减少。这表明消费者正在更具选择性地购物,以便找到最划算的交易,更倾向于购买性价比高的商品。

🛍️ 耐用品及奢侈品受影响,价格敏感度提升:家具、电子产品和家电等品类销售额的下降,以及亚马逊Prime会员日销售增长主要依赖折扣,都显示出消费者对价格的敏感度在提高。即使是奢侈品领域,消费者也开始削减开支或转向购买二手商品,表明“即使是奢侈品买家也感受到了压力”。

📈 经济不确定性下的消费行为:在就业市场强劲和低失业率的支撑下,消费者仍然愿意消费,但前提是能够获得“好交易”。关税和潜在的价格上涨让他们心存疑虑,但对优惠的追逐以及更灵活的支付方式(如“先买后付”)成为他们维持消费能力的重要手段。

A consumer spending surge last month shows that tariffs haven’t quite killed the American shopper’s need to spend. Retail spending grew at a healthy pace of 0.6% in June, and core spending—a category excluding volatile sectors like gasoline—grew 3.9% from the year before. 

But under the surface, there are signs of stress. Shoppers are still opening their wallets, yes, but they’re taking a much choosier approach to spending—cutting back on many nonessentials and hunting for deals on unavoidable purchases. 

A recent Bank of America Institute note spotted a contradiction: While data shows customers increasing spending at restaurants recently, when surveyed, shoppers said they actually cut spending on dining out. They explain this by deal-hunting: Diners still went out, but scaled down the types of restaurants they visited to get more bang for their buck. 

“[C]onsumers do not necessarily dine out less during downturns, but rather they shift to cheaper restaurants,” BoA wrote

“We are seeing a continuation of the consumer selectivity that typically characterizes times of economic uncertainty. Specifically, some consumers appear to be seeking out perhaps fewer, but more meaningful experiences,” the research found.

A similar trend is playing out in the grocery aisle, with consumers shopping more frequently but spending less money per trip, “meaning it’s likely people are shopping more selectively to get the best bargains,” BoA wrote.

So while the average American consumer is still spending, they’re getting pickier about where the money goes—cutting back to just the necessities, where possible. 

In an overall strong month where spending expanded across most retail categories, spending fell for furniture, electronics, and appliances—categories that are starting to feel a price hit from tariffs

The just-ended Amazon Prime sales event also showed hints of consumer stress. Sales during the four-day event this year grew 30.3% from the year before, according to Adobe, but much of the growth was driven by discounts, as the “consumer remains price sensitive.” The use of buy-now-pay-later also rose, as shoppers looked for “more flexible ways to manage their budgets,” according to the data provider. Above all, Prime shoppers “prioritized essentials like dish soap and paper products over big-ticket purchases,” the Associated Press reported, citing consumer-data provider Numerator. 

The hunt for bargains has even expanded into the luxury space. According to eMarketer, over a quarter of U.S. adults in a recent survey said they’ve cut back spending on luxury goods, but the same portion says they’ve bought refurbished or used luxury items. “[T]he takeaway is clear—even luxury buyers are feeling the pinch,” the outlet wrote, advising retailers to “emphasize value, investment-worthy quality, and exclusivity” in marketing.

As shoppers grow increasingly price-conscious, a surge in inflation could take a further bite out of that confidence. Consumer prices in June rose at a 2.7% annual rate, speeding up from May, the Labor Department previously reported. 

For now, a healthy job market with low unemployment is still keeping the floor under spending, Heather Long, the chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, said in a statement to the AP

“There’s still a lot of trepidation about tariffs and likely price hikes, but consumers are willing to buy if they feel they can get a good deal,” she said.

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消费支出 消费者行为 通货膨胀 关税 价格敏感性
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