Fortune | FORTUNE 07月18日 01:39
Kinder Morgan kicks off oil and gas earnings season with a bullish outlook, in part thanks to thirsty data centers
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尽管数据中心和人工智能对电力需求影响巨大,但美国天然气需求的最大驱动力实为出口及液化天然气(LNG)终端的快速建设。Kinder Morgan等公司正积极扩建全国天然气管道网络,以满足LNG和数据中心领域激增的需求,并避免增长受阻。预计至2050年,全球天然气需求将增长约25%,LNG将是满足新增需求的主要方式。美国已成为全球最大的天然气生产国和LNG出口国,LNG出口能力预计到2028年将翻倍,并持续增长至2030年代。Kinder Morgan正大力投资管道项目,以连接页岩气产区与LNG设施及数据中心,其LNG相关业务预计到2028年将增长50%。

🌍 全球LNG需求强劲增长,美国LNG出口主导国际市场。美国天然气生产能力已连续15年位居世界首位,近两年更是超越卡塔尔成为最大的LNG出口国。预计到2050年,全球天然气需求将显著增长,其中LNG将是满足新增需求的关键,其增长速度有望超过天然气总需求的增长。这为美国天然气行业提供了巨大的发展机遇。

🏗️ LNG终端建设加速,以满足出口需求。美国正以前所未有的速度建设液化天然气(LNG)终端,尤其是在德克萨斯州和路易斯安那州的墨西哥湾沿岸地区。预计到2028年,北美的LNG出口能力将从2023年的11.4十亿立方英尺/日(Bcf/d)翻倍至24.4 Bcf/d,并有望在2030年代实现2023年基准水平的三倍。这一扩张得益于美国页岩气革命带来的产量激增。

🏗️ Kinder Morgan积极布局,扩建管道网络支持LNG和数据中心发展。作为美国主要的天然气管道运营商之一,Kinder Morgan正大力投资建设新的天然气管道项目,以连接页岩气产区与LNG设施以及日益增长的数据中心。公司已将其项目储备增加至93亿美元,其中约一半用于满足电力需求增长,另一半则用于LNG扩张。例如,其正在建设的Trident Intrastate Pipeline项目将极大地改善将天然气输送至墨西哥湾沿岸LNG终端的物流效率。

📈 美国国内天然气需求稳健增长,为行业提供坚实支撑。除了国际LNG出口驱动外,美国国内的电力和工业领域对天然气的需求也保持强劲。数据中心行业的快速发展进一步增加了天然气消费量。Kinder Morgan预计,国际LNG增长与国内强劲的电力和工业需求相结合,将支撑天然气市场的长期繁荣,并能持续数十年。

💡 能源转型背景下,天然气作为过渡能源的角色愈发重要。尽管全球对可再生能源的投资不断增加,但天然气因其相对清洁的特性和在电力供应中的灵活性,仍被视为向低碳经济转型过程中的重要过渡能源。亚洲和非洲等新兴经济体不断增长的人口和财富,也推动了对能源的需求,这为天然气的全球贸易提供了持续的动力。

While most of the nation’s power focus is on servicing the rise of data centers and AI, the biggest driver of natural gas demand is exports and the rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas terminals to supply the world.

Houston-based Kinder Morgan (No. 289 in the Fortune 500) is leading the charge with a handful of other developers to rapidly build the needed natural gas pipelines throughout the country to supply both the surging LNG and data center sectors and to avoid having pipelines create a bottleneck for growth.

Kinder Morgan co-founder and executive chairman Rich Kinder kicked off earnings season for the oil and gas industry after market close July 16 with his bullishness on global gas demand, which is why the company has added about $6 billion in projects costs to its now-$9.3 billion project backlog in the past 12 months.

The industry is focusing a lot on “rapidly growing demand in America,” Kinder said. “But as we all know, the gas market is international in nature, and a great deal of the growth potential for U.S. production is driven by that worldwide increase in demand.”

He cited projections from Exxon Mobil and the U.S. Department of Energy—dating back to the Biden administration last year—that estimated global gas demand could easily surge by 25% or so from now until 2050, even as renewable energy growth keeps soaring, led by growing populations and wealth in Asia and Africa.

Natural gas must be liquefied for export overseas, which has triggered the massive race to build out LNG facilities, especially along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast. The U.S. is producing more gas than it can consume domestically because of the shale gas boom that kicked off 20 years ago. In fact, the U.S. used to be an LNG importer.

“It will be LNG which will satisfy the bulk of this additional demand, and I think it will grow faster than the overall demand for natural gas,” Kinder said in the earnings call.

Rising supplies and demand

The U.S. produced 103.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of gas on average in 2024, more than doubling U.S. natural gas volumes in 20 years. That’s already on the rise in 2025, up to 107.2 Bcf/d for the month of April, according to the Energy Department.

Although crude oil pricing and production volumes have stagnated, the gas side of the industry keeps growing.

North America’s LNG export capacity is on track to more than double between 2023 and 2028, from 11.4 Bcf/d in 2023 to 24.4 Bcf/d in 2028, according to the Energy Department, and continue growing well into the 2030s, eventually tripling capacity from the 2023 baseline.

The U.S. has led the world in gas production for 15 years and, for just more than two years, now exports the most LNG, having surpassed Qatar.

Kinder Morgan aims to move much of that gas from the shale fields to the LNG facilities and data centers. Already, Kinder Morgan helps move 40% of all the U.S. natural gas produced.

“When you add the international LNG growth to the robust need for gas to satisfy U.S. domestic power and industrial demand…it signals to me that the positive natural gas story has legs and will last for decades to come,” Kinder said.

The company’s new projects are about half-and-half focused on serving power demand growth or LNG expansions, said CEO Kim Dang.

Kinder Morgan is primarily focused on building pipelines to feed data center growth from Arizona to South Carolina and beyond. The LNG growth is concentrated on Texas and Louisiana, as well as the company’s Elba Island LNG facilities in Georgia.

The newest expansion announced July 16 is to add to the planned Trident Intrastate Pipeline, which isn’t even built yet. The expansion will add to the pipeline’s capacity, growing from 1.5 Bcf/d to 2.0 Bcf/d as it stretches 216 miles from west of Houston to LNG hubs by the Texas-Louisiana border.

Research firm RBN Energy recently called Trident a “game changer for Gulf Coast LNG terminals” by solving the logistical challenge of getting gas through the congested Houston area by essentially taking a scenic route north of the nation’s fourth-most-populous city.

Kinder Morgan also is expanding the Gulf Coast Express Pipeline from the Permian Basin in West Texas to LNG facilities in South Texas, as well as the Evangeline Pass pipeline project in Louisiana to service LNG hubs there.

Dang said Kinder Morgan’s volumes feeding LNG facilities will growth 50% from now through 2028, up to 12 Bcf/d.

Throughout the Deep South, the company has its Mississippi Crossing and South System Expansion 4 projects to move more gas into Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina, including to potential data center projects that are on the rise in the South.

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天然气 LNG 管道建设 能源出口 Kinder Morgan
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