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SurgeryLSTM: A Time-Aware Neural Model for Accurate and Explainable Length of Stay Prediction After Spine Surgery
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本文介绍了一种名为SurgeryLSTM的机器学习模型,用于预测脊柱手术的住院时长,通过与传统模型对比,SurgeryLSTM在预测准确性和可解释性方面表现出显著优势,为临床决策提供支持。

arXiv:2507.11570v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Objective: To develop and evaluate machine learning (ML) models for predicting length of stay (LOS) in elective spine surgery, with a focus on the benefits of temporal modeling and model interpretability. Materials and Methods: We compared traditional ML models (e.g., linear regression, random forest, support vector machine (SVM), and XGBoost) with our developed model, SurgeryLSTM, a masked bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) with an attention, using structured perioperative electronic health records (EHR) data. Performance was evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R2), and key predictors were identified using explainable AI. Results: SurgeryLSTM achieved the highest predictive accuracy (R2=0.86), outperforming XGBoost (R2 = 0.85) and baseline models. The attention mechanism improved interpretability by dynamically identifying influential temporal segments within preoperative clinical sequences, allowing clinicians to trace which events or features most contributed to each LOS prediction. Key predictors of LOS included bone disorder, chronic kidney disease, and lumbar fusion identified as the most impactful predictors of LOS. Discussion: Temporal modeling with attention mechanisms significantly improves LOS prediction by capturing the sequential nature of patient data. Unlike static models, SurgeryLSTM provides both higher accuracy and greater interpretability, which are critical for clinical adoption. These results highlight the potential of integrating attention-based temporal models into hospital planning workflows. Conclusion: SurgeryLSTM presents an effective and interpretable AI solution for LOS prediction in elective spine surgery. Our findings support the integration of temporal, explainable ML approaches into clinical decision support systems to enhance discharge readiness and individualized patient care.

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脊柱手术 住院时长预测 机器学习模型 SurgeryLSTM 可解释AI
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