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XiChen: An observation-scalable fully AI-driven global weather forecasting system with 4D variational knowledge
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本文介绍了首个观察可扩展的纯AI驱动全球天气预报系统XiChen,其能在17秒内完成从数据同化到中期预报的整个流程,具有独立于数值天气预报系统的强大潜力。

arXiv:2507.09202v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Recent advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI) demonstrate significant potential to revolutionize weather forecasting. However, most AI-driven models rely on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems for initial condition preparation, which often consumes hours on supercomputers. Here we introduce XiChen, the first observation-scalable fully AI-driven global weather forecasting system, whose entire pipeline, from Data Assimilation (DA) to medium-range forecasting, can be accomplished within only 17 seconds. XiChen is built upon a foundation model that is pre-trained for weather forecasting. Meanwhile, this model is subsequently fine-tuned to serve as both observation operators and DA models, thereby scalably assimilating conventional and raw satellite observations. Furthermore, the integration of four-dimensional variational knowledge ensures that XiChen's DA and medium-range forecasting accuracy rivals that of operational NWP systems, amazingly achieving a skillful forecasting lead time exceeding 8.25 days. These findings demonstrate that XiChen holds strong potential toward fully AI-driven weather forecasting independent of NWP systems.

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AI天气预报 XiChen系统 数据同化
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