cs.AI updates on arXiv.org 07月15日 12:24
TAT: Temporal-Aligned Transformer for Multi-Horizon Peak Demand Forecasting
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本文提出了一种名为Temporal-Aligned Transformer(TAT)的多时域时间序列预测方法,通过利用先验已知的信息如节假日和促销活动等,提高了预测准确性,在电商供应链管理中具有应用价值。

arXiv:2507.10349v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Multi-horizon time series forecasting has many practical applications such as demand forecasting. Accurate demand prediction is critical to help make buying and inventory decisions for supply chain management of e-commerce and physical retailers, and such predictions are typically required for future horizons extending tens of weeks. This is especially challenging during high-stake sales events when demand peaks are particularly difficult to predict accurately. However, these events are important not only for managing supply chain operations but also for ensuring a seamless shopping experience for customers. To address this challenge, we propose Temporal-Aligned Transformer (TAT), a multi-horizon forecaster leveraging apriori-known context variables such as holiday and promotion events information for improving predictive performance. Our model consists of an encoder and decoder, both embedded with a novel Temporal Alignment Attention (TAA), designed to learn context-dependent alignment for peak demand forecasting. We conduct extensive empirical analysis on two large-scale proprietary datasets from a large e-commerce retailer. We demonstrate that TAT brings up to 30% accuracy improvement on peak demand forecasting while maintaining competitive overall performance compared to other state-of-the-art methods.

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时间序列预测 TAT模型 电商供应链
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