cs.AI updates on arXiv.org 07月15日 12:24
Causal Discovery-Driven Change Point Detection in Time Series
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文章提出一种针对时序数据变化点检测的两阶段非参数算法,通过约束发现方法学习部分因果结构,并使用条件相对皮尔逊散度估计变化点,有效应对实际应用中仅关注部分时间序列成分的需求。

arXiv:2407.07290v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Change point detection in time series aims to identify moments when the probability distribution of time series changes. It is widely applied in many areas, such as human activity sensing and medical science. In the context of multivariate time series, this typically involves examining the joint distribution of multiple variables: If the distribution of any one variable changes, the entire time series undergoes a distribution shift. However, in practical applications, we may be interested only in certain components of the time series, exploring abrupt changes in their distributions while accounting for the presence of other components. Here, assuming an underlying structural causal model that governs the time-series data generation, we address this task by proposing a two-stage non-parametric algorithm that first learns parts of the causal structure through constraint-based discovery methods, and then employs conditional relative Pearson divergence estimation to identify the change points. The conditional relative Pearson divergence quantifies the distribution difference between consecutive segments in the time series, while the causal discovery method allows a focus on the causal mechanism, facilitating access to independent and identically distributed (IID) samples. Theoretically, the typical assumption of samples being IID in conventional change point detection methods can be relaxed based on the Causal Markov Condition. Through experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets, we validate the correctness and utility of our approach.

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相关标签

时序数据 变化点检测 非参数算法 因果结构 皮尔逊散度
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