少点错误 07月14日 07:29
Moloch’s Demise—solving the original problem
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本文探讨了如何从博弈论的角度理解并解决“莫洛克困境”,即个体理性选择导致集体灾难的现象。文章分析了“莫洛克”的本质,并提出了反抗暴政、使其崩溃的策略,认为这优于持续的恶劣处境。此外,文章还指出,在现实困境中,除了既定的选择之外,寻找第三条道路至关重要,尤其是在面对冲突和扩张欲望时,放弃这些目标可能成为解决问题的关键。

🤔 '莫洛克困境'指的是个体理性选择导致集体灾难的现象,类似于在经济或社会中,个人短期利益最大化却损害整体利益。

⚔️ 文章认为,面对'莫洛克',反抗暴政、使其崩溃是更优的选择,这在博弈论中被视为一种有限恶劣情况,优于持续的恶劣处境。

💡 文章强调,在现实生活中,除了既定的选择外,寻找第三条道路至关重要,尤其是当冲突和扩张欲望是问题根源时,放弃这些目标可能带来解决方案。

Published on July 13, 2025 11:29 PM GMT

We know that Molochian situations are everywhere, from the baggage claim to the economy. It’s a metaphor that helps us understand the pernicious nature of negative-sum games—when our rational short-term individual decisions create a system that is detrimental to all, making us complicit in our own subjugation.

But what about the foundational story? What should the original victims of Moloch do?

I mentioned in Who is Moloch? that the Canaanites were acting rationally by offering the occasional child for sacrifice, but that’s not entirely true. We can actually find an optimal strategy through using some Game Theory!

Right now we have a chronically bad situation. So, if on one hand, the tyrant can and will destroy literally everything, this is an absolutely bad outcome, a game-over scenario, this is indeed worse than a chronically bad situation. But if there is a chance that some of the population can survive the consequences of refusing to submit, leading to the starvation of Moloch, then you are measuring a chronically bad situation with a finitely bad situation. And a situation that is finitely bad, as long as it is not absolutely bad (game over) is better than a chronically bad situation.

So. the optimal solution is to rebel and starve the tyrant.

Ironically, in John Milton’s Paradise Lost, this is the path for which Moloch advocates when addressing his wretched compatriots; open war against God. Now, Satan famously stated…

“Better to reign in Hell than serve in Heav’n” — Satan

Moloch goes one further, to propose (and I’m paraphrasing) that it’s even better to risk death attempting to conquer Heaven, than to rule in Hell.

But this is not the only answer. When we look closer, a better solution becomes evident. The Bible portrays the Canaanites (Moloch’s victims in this case) as a war-like, expansionist culture—an account we should approach with some skepticism, given that it also endorses genocide against the Canaanites. Nevertheless, for the sake of argument, let’s accept their allegiance with Moloch is precisely to gain his support for their perpetual conquests (which is right up the belligerent Moloch’s alley). So, it is actually the desire for conflict and expansion that is driving this unhappy arrangement. Let go of that mandate, and they no longer need Moloch—problem solved.

So…

In Game Theory we are often given an alternative with regards to solutions. This solution however, serves as a reminder that beyond theory, in the messy throes of real-life dilemmas, it’s often crucial to seek out a third option, one that’s beyond the established parameters.



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莫洛克 博弈论 集体困境 解决方案
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