Fortune | FORTUNE 20小时前
Trump’s law of the jungle means U.S. trade deals aren’t worth the paper they’re printed on, trade expert warns
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本文探讨了特朗普政府时期对国际贸易规则的破坏性影响,特别是通过对巴西征收惩罚性关税和阻挠世界贸易组织(WTO)上诉机构的运作。文章指出,特朗普的贸易政策缺乏一致性和可预测性,导致国际贸易体系的稳定性和公平性受到严重威胁。专家认为,这种单边主义行为可能导致美国面临严重的经济冲击,并呼吁国际社会采取更激进的措施来维护全球贸易秩序。

😠特朗普政府对巴西采取惩罚性关税,理由是政治报复,而非基于合理的贸易依据。专家指出,这种做法破坏了国际贸易的规范性,使得与美国进行贸易谈判变得不可靠。

🚫特朗普政府阻挠WTO上诉机构的任命,导致该机构无法正常运作,削弱了其解决贸易争端的能力。这使得各国可以无视贸易规则,损害了全球贸易体系的公平性。

🌍文章提到,美国曾经是维护WTO规则的重要力量,但现在却采取单边主义行动,损害了自身的国际声誉和经济利益。例如,印尼利用WTO上诉机构瘫痪的机会,实施了镍出口禁令,其他国家也纷纷效仿,加剧了贸易保护主义的趋势。

💡专家认为,为了恢复WTO的权威,国际社会应考虑将美国驱逐出WTO。文章还指出,特朗普更倾向于双边贸易谈判,以便利用美国的优势地位。这种策略可能会损害其他国家的利益,并最终导致美国面临严重的经济冲击。

When President Trump threatened Brazil with punishing tariffs on Wednesday, there was no fancy mathematical equation trotted out this time as justification. 

The 50% levy on goods was retribution for a perceived “witch hunt” against his political ally, Jair Bolsanaro, whose supporters attempted a coup two years ago. 

This administration is bringing back the law of the jungle to international trade, according to trade expert Kristen Hopewell, and time is running out to salvage the remains of a post-war system of commerce that promoted stability and prosperity across the world.

“Trump is a totally unreliable negotiating partner,” she tells Fortune. “Any deal you strike with the administration is not worth the paper it’s written on.” 

As if to hammer home that point, news began to emerge on Thursday that Vietnam had been caught off guard when Trump prematurely announced a 20% duty on all goods entering the U.S. from the southeast Asian country. Vietnamese officials were reportedly still hoping for a number closer to half that.

Nor does his tariff rate appear to be rhymed or reasoned. On Wednesday, when asked how he calculated his various import duties, the president answered that he uses “a formula based on common sense,” one that reflects “how we’ve been treated.”   

Hopewell, a professor at the University of British Columbia, argues this erratic and fickle approach to international negotiations is symptomatic of a Trump deal: “He can simply come back later demanding more. There’s no guarantee it will actually be upheld.”

That’s because the president already removed a cornerstone underpinning global commerce during his first administration six years ago when he blocked all appointments to what is essentially the supreme court of the World Trade Organization (WTO) — its Appellate Body. 

“The WTO is unique amongst international organizations in that its rules are actually legally binding on states. It has teeth,” Hopewell said. Or rather it had teeth.

Kick the United States out

Since the Biden administration continued its policy of blocking appointments to fill its vacancies, there is now no quorum to adjudicate trade disputes, leaving countries little incentive to abide by the rules anymore. Quite the contrary, they can break them with near impunity. 

The United States didn’t always favor dismantling these guardrails.

Over a decade ago, the country led a number of key partners, including Japan and the European Union, to press their rights against China when it attempted to restrict the export of critical minerals, including rare earths.

In 2015, they later won in front of the Appellate Body, forcing Beijing to relent.

Thanks to Trump, this enforcement mechanism no longer works.

In January 2020, just weeks after the WTO’s Appellate Body was decommissioned, Indonesia moved to impose a ban on the export of raw nickel.

Since it has one of the largest remaining deposits of this element vital for electric vehicle batteries and stainless steel, it reckoned it could compel the creation of a domestic downstream industry for processing and refining the ore.

Other countries argued in front of the WTO that it violated the rules and won—or at least they thought they had. 

Indonesia exercised its right to lodge a formal appeal to the Appellate Body, knowing full well that a ruling that settles the dispute was impossible. 

“By appealing into the void, it could continue these WTO illegal export restrictions of nickel and is actually expanding them to other commodities,” Hopewell says. “Other countries are now mimicking Indonesia and introducing similar bans on mineral exports.”

Hopewell believes the moment for bold action has arrived. In a column for Politico this week, she argued the international community should consider expelling the United States from the World Trade Organization in order to revive its paralyzed Appellate Body.

“The stakes are really high, so it’s worth considering more radical solutions,” she told Fortune.

‘A profound economic shock for the U.S.’

That attitude, Hopewell says, is no accident. Trump has long sought to undermine the WTO in favor of bilateral deals, where the U.S. holds more leverage.

“Trump is pursuing a divide-and-conquer strategy,” she said. “He knows the U.S. is strongest when it negotiates one-on-one.”

By agreeing to bilateral talks, she argues, foreign governments hoping to protect domestic industries are undermining themselves. “They’re playing right into Trump’s hands.”

Contacted by Fortune, the WTO Secretariat said it does not comment on the conduct of member states. The White House declined to respond.

To many Americans, Trump’s aggressive trade stance may appear cost-free. But the fallout has yet to reach consumers, in part because industries like autos stockpiled inventory ahead of new duties.

“It will take some time before the effects of the tariffs are felt in higher prices,” Hopewell said. “But when that hits, it’s going to be a profound economic shock for the U.S.”

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特朗普 贸易战 WTO 关税 国际贸易
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