Fortune | FORTUNE 07月11日 18:44
In Trumpworld, the stock markets say that tomorrow never comes
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本文探讨了特朗普总统对加拿大和药品征收关税的言论对全球市场的影响。尽管市场出现小幅下跌,如标准普尔500指数期货下跌0.7%,但投资者似乎并未过度恐慌,普遍认为这些关税措施要么不会实施,要么会被推迟或在未来协议中被修改。分析师指出,这与4月初市场对关税声明的恐慌反应形成鲜明对比,反映出投资者对特朗普政府政策的预期和市场情绪的变化。

📉 市场反应:尽管特朗普计划对加拿大和药品征收关税,但市场反应相对平静。标准普尔500指数期货下跌0.7%,欧洲斯托克600指数下跌1%。

🤔 投资者心态:投资者普遍认为特朗普的关税措施不会立即实施或将被调整,与4月初的恐慌形成对比。

🇨🇦 关税影响:对加拿大的35%关税仅适用于现有贸易协议未涵盖的商品,影响有限。而对药品的200%关税可能对瑞士GDP造成4%的负面影响,但市场认为实施的可能性较低,且影响被延迟。

💡 分析师观点:分析师指出,特朗普的关税负担最终可能由美国消费者承担,且特朗普往往会改变立场。美联储官员也认为关税的影响被延迟,企业正在吸收价格上涨,而非转嫁给消费者。

📈 市场现状:尽管存在潜在风险,市场表现依然坚挺。美国股市投资者可能开始采取更谨慎的看法,但市场总体保持乐观。比特币和恐慌指数VIX也出现波动。

    Global markets slipped this morning on the news that President Trump wants a 35% tariff on Canada. And if he puts a 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals it might wipe 4% off the GDP of Switzerland, Pantheon Macroeconomics estimates. Yet many investors are assuming that much of this will never happen.

S&P 500 futures slipped 0.7% this morning, premarket, after the index hit a new all-time high yesterday of 6,280. Around the world, markets in Asia sold off today but mostly at levels of less than 1%. In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 was down 1% in early trading. Many of those indexes have also hit recent all-time highs, so—fingers crossed!—this could be routine profit-taking rather than the first rumblings of an earthquake.

Emma Wu at JPMorgan noted that retail investors recently became more cautious. “Activity slowed further this week as profit-taking continued,” she told clients in a note seen by Fortune. “Over the past week, they net bought $5.7B – broadly in line with the 12M average but $1B below the YTD weekly pace.”

Nonetheless, it’s a stark contrast to the panic of early April, when President Trump made his first announcements about new trade tariffs and markets went into a nose-dive. This time around, investors are assuming that whatever Trump announces today will either not happen, get delayed, or be moderated in a future deal. 

In Trumpworld, tomorrow never comes.

This level of calm requires investors to ignore a lot of new elephants in various asset-market rooms. Last night, Trump announced he wanted a 35% tariff on Canada. But analysts today are noting that the tariff would only apply to goods not covered by the existing trade deal between the U.S. and Canada.

“So the bark is probably stronger than the bite here and this probably reflects why S&P futures are only down a couple of tenths so far this morning,” Jim Reid and his team at Deutsche Bank told clients this morning.

And then there’s the 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals. If that was to ever actually happen it would wipe 4% off the GDP of Switzerland, according to Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono at Pantheon Macroeconomics. (The Swiss make and export a lot of drugs.) But there’s no need to freak out, the pair say. “The timeline is distant, and the threat was an off-hand comment in an interview—which we think is why most pharma stocks fell by less than 1% on the news.”

At UBS, Paul Donovan had a similar theme: “Most of Trump’s tax burden hits US consumers with a delay of several months,” he wrote this morning. “Investors are inclined to assume that Trump will retreat as Trump has done so often.”

Stock investors were also likely cheered by hearing two of the Fed’s regional presidents say yesterday that the effect of tariffs remains long-delayed and that companies are so far absorbing the price increases in their margins rather than pushing them onto consumers.

Thus the markets remain buoyant—so far—despite the apparent dangers. Investors in U.S. equities may be shaping up to take a more negative view, judging by the decline in futures prices this morning. We’ll see.

If the Americans stay optimistic, it presents the president with a paradox, UBS’s Donovan said: “Markets are strong on the assumption Trump will retreat; markets being strong reduces the incentive for Trump to retreat.” 

Here’s a snapshot of the action prior to the opening bell in New York:

    S&P 500 futures were down 0.7% this morning after the index hit another all-time high yesterday, closing up 0.27% at 6,280.Bitcoin went on a tear and hit another all-time high. It is now above $117K.The VIX fear index was up 6% yesterday.Stoxx Europe 600 sold off by 1% in early trading.The UK’s FTSE 100 was down 0.38% this morning after hitting an all-time high yesterday.India’s Nifty 50 declined 0.79%.South Korea’s Kospi was off 0.19% this morning.China was widely up.

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特朗普 关税 市场反应 投资者情绪 贸易政策
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