Fortune | FORTUNE 07月11日 14:49
Alibaba risks deepening $100 billion rout as turf war heats up
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中国外卖市场的激烈竞争导致阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司的市值蒸发了1000亿美元,且利润和投资者信心受损的情况似乎没有结束的迹象。自3月份的高点以来,其在香港上市的股票下跌了28%,几乎是衡量中国科技股的指标的两倍。竞争对手京东和美团也出现了类似的下跌。多家券商下调了目标股价,因为这场旷日持久的“地盘争夺战”仍在升级。阿里巴巴的食品配送策略分散了投资者对人工智能浪潮的关注。据估计,仅6月份一个季度,阿里巴巴、美团和京东就在折扣上烧掉了约40亿美元。投资者可能保持谨慎,直到大幅折扣明确结束,尤其是在它们引发更多盈利下调并限制对至关重要的人工智能业务的投资的情况下。

📉 中国外卖市场竞争激烈:阿里巴巴股价下跌,市值蒸发1000亿美元,反映了市场竞争的激烈程度和对盈利能力的担忧。

💰 巨额资金投入:仅一个季度,阿里巴巴、美团和京东在折扣上的花费就高达约40亿美元,显示了市场竞争的激烈程度和对盈利能力的冲击。

⚖️ 政府监管与市场风险:政府可能介入以遏制价格竞争,但投资者对持续的折扣以及对盈利和人工智能业务投资的潜在影响保持谨慎。

A protracted battle in China’s food-delivery market has chopped $100 billion in market value from Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., with no end in sight for damage to profits and investor confidence.

Its Hong Kong-listed shares plunged 28% from a March high through Thursday, nearly double the loss in a gauge of Chinese tech peers. Rivals JD.com Inc. and Meituan have dropped by similar measures amid daily headlines on government efforts to contain the destructive hyper-competition being dubbed “involution”.

At least four brokers, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and HSBC Holdings Plc, have cut their price targets by an average of 8% since late June as the latest phase of the yearslong turf war continues to escalate.

“It could last longer than expected,” said Luo Jing, investment director at Value Partners Group Ltd. in Hong Kong. “The players are financially stronger than in the previous round, with more cash and better cash flow positions.”

Alibaba’s food-delivery strategy has distracted investors away from the DeepSeek-led AI boom that drove its shares up more than 80% in just two months earlier this year. The company has merged its delivery unit into its core business and boosted subsidies since JD.com’s formal entry to the space in February.

It’s a costly fight. Nomura Holdings Inc. estimates about $4 billion has been burned on discounts in the June quarter alone by Alibaba, Meituan and JD.com. It sees Alibaba dictating the intensity and scale of the coupon war going forward.

Sector leader Meituan said Saturday that it was going into “attack” mode versus Alibaba, while JD.com announced a new incentive scheme this week. The companies’ extreme moves have drawn much criticism from the government over the potential disastrous impact to the industry, as well as warnings on driver health and food safety.

Alibaba might sustain a loss of 41 billion yuan ($5.7 billion) in its food-delivery business for the 12 months through next June, according to Goldman Sachs, equal to about a third of its net income for the fiscal year ended March.

“Aggressive investment in food delivery, insta-shopping will meaningfully damp its near-term earnings outlook,” HSBC analysts including Charlene Liu wrote in a note this week, cutting their price target for Alibaba by 15%.

The consensus estimate for Alibaba’s 12-month forward earnings per share is down about 6% since early May. Analysts are still overwhelmingly bullish, with 44 buy ratings on the Hong Kong shares and no holds or sells. The stock also remains historically cheap at a price-to-earnings ratio of less than 11 times.

In terms of uspide risks, UOB Kay Hian Holdings Ltd. analyst Julia Pan notes that the government may step in to curb price competition if the market takes a heavy blow and margins get squeezed further. Alibaba’s current valuation is low enough to trigger some dip buying, she added.

The stock climbed as much as 3.5% Friday amid a broad rally in Hong Kong.

But investors may remain cautious until a definitive end to the steep discounts, especially if they trigger more earnings downgrades and constrain investment in all-important AI business. 

“We do need to watch for price competition that evolves into a situation where certain companies decide to gain market share at the expense of profitability,” said Nicholas Chui, a Franklin Templeton portfolio manager. “As a stock picker, we would avoid those stocks.”

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阿里巴巴 外卖市场 市场竞争
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