cs.AI updates on arXiv.org 07月11日 12:04
Goal-Oriented Sequential Bayesian Experimental Design for Causal Learning
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本文提出GO-CBED,一种针对序列因果实验设计的贝叶斯框架,旨在提高实验效率,通过优化用户指定因果量,实现更精准的实验设计。采用变分下界估算器和基于策略网络与正态化流的联合优化,实现实时决策。实验表明,GO-CBED在多种因果推理和发现任务中优于现有方法。

arXiv:2507.07359v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We present GO-CBED, a goal-oriented Bayesian framework for sequential causal experimental design. Unlike conventional approaches that select interventions aimed at inferring the full causal model, GO-CBED directly maximizes the expected information gain (EIG) on user-specified causal quantities of interest, enabling more targeted and efficient experimentation. The framework is both non-myopic, optimizing over entire intervention sequences, and goal-oriented, targeting only model aspects relevant to the causal query. To address the intractability of exact EIG computation, we introduce a variational lower bound estimator, optimized jointly through a transformer-based policy network and normalizing flow-based variational posteriors. The resulting policy enables real-time decision-making via an amortized network. We demonstrate that GO-CBED consistently outperforms existing baselines across various causal reasoning and discovery tasks-including synthetic structural causal models and semi-synthetic gene regulatory networks-particularly in settings with limited experimental budgets and complex causal mechanisms. Our results highlight the benefits of aligning experimental design objectives with specific research goals and of forward-looking sequential planning.

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贝叶斯框架 因果实验设计 信息增益 变分方法 因果推理
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