There is no official tally of losses on either side. But our daily war tracker offers some clues. Our satellite data and shifts to areas of control suggest when the fighting is intensifying. This lines up well with more than 200 credible estimates of casualties from Western governments and independent researchers. By combining this data we can, for the first time, provide a credible daily death toll—or an estimate of estimates.

There is too little data to generate a comparable live estimate for Ukraine. However, a catalogue of the known dead and missing from UALosses, a website, implies that between 73,000 and 140,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died since the invasion began.

Russia’s rising death toll is the result of movements on the ground. Our satellite data suggest its current pace of advance is among the fastest in two years (albeit from a very low baseline). In recent weeks Ukraine has endured some of the heaviest drone and missile bombardments of the conflict. Early on July 9th Russia launched 700 drones mostly towards Lutsk, a city close to the border with Poland.

Ukraine is still putting up a mighty defence against a far bigger power. Despite the summer push and delays to weapon shipments from America, Russia has little to show for its advances. The current offensive still works out at just 15 square kilometres per day—roughly the size of Los Angeles airport. Over the past year it has gained just 0.038 square km (about nine acres) per dead soldier. Even at the quicker pace of the past 30 days, it would take another 89 years to conquer all of Ukraine. Seizing the unoccupied parts of the four regions that Mr Putin already claims—Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia—would take until February 2029.

Yet Mr Putin seems undeterred. His armed forces are recruiting 10,000-15,000 more troops per month than Ukraine’s are, luring Russians with generous sign-on bonuses and salaries rather than relying on the conscription now roiling Ukraine.