J&T Express于2025年7月8日发布了其第二季度的业绩报告。这家由中国企业家在印度尼西亚创立的公司，迅速崛起并成为东南亚地区的领先电商物流企业，随后于2019年大胆进军竞争激烈的中国市场，目前占据超过11%的市场份额。近期，J&T Express将其在中国积累的专业知识拓展至沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、埃及、墨西哥和巴西等新兴市场。该报告验证了Momentum Works在东南亚电商3.0报告中概述的许多趋势，揭示了J&T Express在东南亚市场的强劲增长以及在中国市场的竞争态势。

📦 2025年上半年，J&T Express在东南亚处理了32亿个包裹，同比增长58%。日均处理量从2024年第二季度的1100万件增加到2025年第二季度的1900万件。这种增长主要得益于TikTok Shop的推动，而Shopee已停止增加对J&T的订单分配，Lazada的订单量保持稳定。

📈 J&T Express预计到2029年，东南亚地区的人均包裹量将从2024年的26个增加到52个，这与平台渗透率的提高、物流效率的提升以及人工智能驱动的优化相一致。然而，该公司对2025年东南亚电商渗透率25%的估计，被认为是过于乐观的。

🇨🇳 在中国市场，J&T Express的市场份额数据表明，前四大加盟制物流公司（中通、圆通、韵达和申通）之间的差距正在缩小。而采用直营模式的京东物流自2022年以来保持了稳定的市场份额。虽然加盟制物流模式存在于中国以外的市场，但高度精细化的中国模式在许多方面仍然是独一无二的。

🌍 J&T Express已将“加强品牌、持续拓展非平台客户、提高盈利能力”列为其五大战略重点之一，这与Momentum Works在东南亚电商3.0报告中观察到的电商物流趋势相符。

💰 在巴西和墨西哥等新市场，每个包裹的收入从2023年的1.32美元增长到2024年的2.05美元，是东南亚的3倍，也是中国的6倍以上。这表明这些市场目前的竞争程度较低。

J&T Express, a leading ecommerce logistics company in Southeast Asia and China, released its Q2 2025 results on 8 July.

Founded in Indonesia by Chinese entrepreneurs, the company quickly rose to dominance across Southeast Asia, before boldly entering China’s hyper-competitive logistics market in 2019 – where it now commands over 11% market share.

More recently, J&T has taken its China-honed expertise to emerging markets such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Mexico, and Brazil. In Latin America, it has expanded beyond Chinese ecommerce platforms to serve regional giant MercadoLibre.

The Q2 results validate many trends outlined in our Ecommerce in Southeast Asia 3.0 report. 

Here are a few key thoughts:

1. J&T handled 3.2 billion parcels in Southeast Asia in H1 2025, up 58% year-on-year. Average daily volume rose from 11 million in Q2 2024 to 19 million in Q2 2025. Where is this growth coming from?
2. Three leading platforms control >84% of Southeast Asia’s GMV.With Shopee having stopped increasing volume allocations to J&T and Lazada remaining stable, TikTok Shop is the main driver of this 3PL growth. In fact, J&T’s data gives us a good proxy for TikTok Shop’s volume trajectory;
3. J&T cited 26 parcels per capita in 2024, projecting it will double to 52 by 2029. This is a realistic projection, in line with increased platform penetration, logistics efficiency gains, and AI-driven optimisation;
4. J&T estimates ecommerce penetration of 25% for Southeast Asia in 2025.This is very generous in our opinion.  In contrast, our estimate put the figure at 12.8% in 2024;
5. J&T’s Chinese market share estimates point to narrowing gaps among the top four franchise-based logistics players – ZTO, YTO, Yunda, and STO. Our fieldwork in China confirms this trend. JD Logistics, which operates a direct model, has maintained stable market share since 2022. While the franchise model for logistics exists outside China, the highly refined Chinese version remains unique in many ways;
6. J&T has made “Strengthen the brand, continuously expand non-platform customers, and improve profitability” one of its top five strategic priorities. This move aligns with the ecommerce logistics trends we observed in Momentum Works Ecommerce in Southeast Asia 3.0 report;
7. In new markets – including Brazil and Mexico – revenue per parcel grew from US$1.32 in 2023 to US$2.05 in 2024 – three times higher than Southeast Asia’s US$0.71 and over 6x China’s US$0.32.This is 3 times higher than US$0.71 in Southeast Asia and 7 times of U$0.32 in China. These markets are clearly less competitive, for now.

In addition to Ecommerce in Southeast Asia 3.0, you can also refer to our Who is J&T report for a deeper understanding about the company and why it could break through in highly competitive markets. 

The post Who is driving J&T Express’s volume surge in 2025? first appeared on The Low Down - Momentum Works.