cs.AI updates on arXiv.org 07月08日 13:54
A Novel Approach for Estimating Positive Lyapunov Exponents in One-Dimensional Chaotic Time Series Using Machine Learning
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本文提出一种基于机器学习的方法,通过预测误差增长估算非线性动力系统中的李雅普诺夫指数,在多个混沌映射上实现高精度,为混沌分析提供数据驱动的新途径。

arXiv:2507.04868v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Understanding and quantifying chaos in nonlinear dynamical systems remains a fundamental challenge in science and engineering. The Lyapunov exponent is a key measure of chaotic behavior, but its accurate estimation from experimental data is often hindered by methodological and computational limitations. In this work, we present a novel machine-learning-based approach for estimating the positive Lyapunov exponent (MLE) from one-dimensional time series, using the growth of out-of-sample prediction errors as a proxy for trajectory divergence. Our method demonstrates high scientific relevance, offering a robust, data-driven alternative to traditional analytic techniques. Through comprehensive testing on several canonical chaotic maps - including the logistic, sine, cubic, and Chebyshev maps - we achieved a coefficient of determination R2pos > 0.9 between predicted and theoretical MLE values for time series as short as M = 200 points. The best accuracy was observed for the Chebyshev map (R2pos = 0.999). Notably, the proposed method maintains high computational efficiency and generalizes well across various machine learning algorithms. These results highlight the significance of our approach for practical chaos analysis in both synthetic and experimental settings, opening new possibilities for robust nonlinear dynamics assessment when only time series data are available.

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机器学习 混沌系统 李雅普诺夫指数 非线性动力学 时间序列分析
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