Published on July 4, 2025 5:03 PM GMT
Following encouraging Market Pulse Challenge 25Q2 results, we've launched the next round of our experiment in aggregating market forecasts: the Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3.
The Market Pulse Challenge is designed to test whether community forecasts contain tradable signal. More data is needed, but the Community Prediction's performance in Q2 was promising:
- Relative returns: Forecasters correctly picked the higher-returning asset in all 8 head-to-head questions
Volatility: VIX predictions anticipated the low-volatility regime
Maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks:
Company fundamentals: Q2 revenues and EPS for AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, and AMD landed in the fattest parts of the distributions
First reported revenues after March 2025:
See the full Q2 analysis and winner announcement.
What's new in Q3
We're expanding coverage while maintaining the core approach: rolling questions that build a clean dataset for tracking forecast accuracy over time. $7,500 prize pool.
New questions include:
- Tesla's Q2 earnings (revenues and EPS)Bi-weekly VIX peaksRelative performance of Crude vs S&P,Treasury yield forecasts
Additional questions on NVIDIA's forward guidance, potential S&P 500 additions, and tech earnings will launch throughout the quarter.
We'll see if performance is consistent into Q3 and whether the crowd can identify regime shifts before they emerge.
Discuss
