Fortune | FORTUNE 07月02日 18:35
‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ won’t eliminate taxes on federal Social Security benefits as Trump says it will
index_new5.html
../../../zaker_core/zaker_tpl_static/wap/tpl_guoji1.html

 

本文探讨了特朗普关于取消社保税的言论,并将其与实际的立法提案进行对比。文章指出,特朗普的说法夸大了对老年人的实际利益。参议院和众议院提出的方案仅为65岁以上老人提供一项临时的税收减免,而非完全取消社保税。文章还分析了这项政策对经济的影响,以及相关税收减免的具体细节,并引用了经济学家的观点,强调了将税收减免与完全取消社保税混淆可能带来的误导性。最后,文章指出了该政策对联邦赤字和社保基金的影响。

👴特朗普声称将取消社保税,但实际情况并非如此。他最近的言论与正在国会讨论的立法提案并不一致,这些提案仅涉及对老年人的临时税收减免,而非完全取消社保税。

📝参议院和众议院分别提出了不同的税收减免方案。参议院提议为65岁以上的老年人提供6000美元的税收减免,而众议院的提案为4000美元。这些减免适用于所有收入,而非仅限于社保福利。

💰并非所有社保受益人都能享受到税收减免。低收入老年人、未满65岁就领取福利的人以及收入超过一定门槛的人将无法享受。参议院的提案中,调整后总收入低于75,000美元(夫妻合并申报为150,000美元)的老年人将免除社保税。

📉取消社保税将对经济产生重大影响。宾夕法尼亚大学的宾夕法尼亚沃顿预算模型估计,取消社保福利的所得税将在十年内减少1.5万亿美元的收入,到2054年使联邦债务增加7%。同时,它还将加快社会保障信托基金的耗尽速度。

💡白宫认为参议院的提案将使88%的领取社保福利的老年人免于缴纳社保税,并预计将使3390万老年人受益,平均每人增加670美元的税后收入。然而,税务基金会政策分析主任警告说,将税收减免与完全取消社保税混淆可能导致老年人的困惑和愤怒。

It does not.

At best, Trump’s “no tax on Social Security” claim exaggerates the benefits to seniors if either the House or Senate-passed proposals is signed into law.

Here’s a look at Trump’s recent statements, and what the proposals would — or would not — do.

What Trump has said

Trump repeatedly told voters during his 2024 campaign that he would eliminate taxes on Social Security. As his massive legislative package has moved through Congress, the Republican president has claimed that’s what the bill would do.

Trump said on a recent appearance on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures” that the bill includes “no tax on tips, no tax on Social Security, no tax on overtime.”

A temporary tax deduction

But instead of eliminating the tax, the Senate and House have each passed their own versions of a temporary tax deduction for seniors aged 65 and over, which applies to all income — not just Social Security.

And it turns out not all Social Security beneficiaries will be able to claim the deduction. Those who won’t be able to do so include the lowest-income seniors who already don’t pay taxes on Social Security, those who choose to claim their benefits before they reach age 65 and those above a defined income threshold.

The Senate proposal includes a temporary $6,000 deduction for seniors over the age of 65, contrasted with the House proposal, which includes a temporary deduction of $4,000.

The Senate proposal approved Tuesday would eliminate Social Security tax liability for seniors with adjusted gross incomes of $75,000 or less or $150,000 if filing as a married couple.

If passed into law, the tax deduction would last four years, from 2025 to 2029.

The deductions phase out as income increases.

White House touts impact

Touting a new Council of Economic Advisers analysis, the White House said Tuesday that “88% of all seniors who receive Social Security — will pay NO TAX on their Social Security benefits,” going on to say that the Senate proposal’s $6,000 senior deduction “is estimated to benefit 33.9 million seniors, including seniors not claiming Social Security. The deduction yields an average increase in after-tax income of $670 per senior who benefits from it.”

Garrett Watson, director of policy analysis at the Tax Foundation think tank, said conflating the tax deduction with a claim that there will be no tax on Social Security could end up confusing and angering a lot of seniors who will expect to not pay taxes on their Social Security benefits.

“While the deduction does provide some relief for seniors, it’s far from completely repealing the tax on their benefits,” Watson said.

Economic effect

The cost of actually eliminating the tax on Social Security would have massive impacts on the economy.

University of Pennsylvania’s Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates that eliminating income taxes on Social Security benefits “would reduce revenues by $1.5 trillion over 10 years and increase federal debt by 7 percent by 2054″ and speed up the projected depletion date of the Social Security Trust Fund from 2034 to 2032.

Discussions over taxes on Social Security are just part of the overall bill, which is estimated in its Senate version to increase federal deficits over the next 10 years by nearly $3.3 trillion from 2025 to 2034, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Administration officials have said the cost of the tax bill would be offset by tariff income.

Recently, the CBO separately estimated that Trump’s sweeping tariff plan would cut deficits by $2.8 trillion over a 10-year period while shrinking the economy, raising the inflation rate and reducing the purchasing power of households overall.

Introducing the 2025 Fortune 500

, the definitive ranking of the biggest companies in America. 

Explore this year's list.

Fish AI Reader

Fish AI Reader

AI辅助创作,多种专业模板,深度分析,高质量内容生成。从观点提取到深度思考,FishAI为您提供全方位的创作支持。新版本引入自定义参数,让您的创作更加个性化和精准。

FishAI

FishAI

鱼阅,AI 时代的下一个智能信息助手,助你摆脱信息焦虑

联系邮箱 441953276@qq.com

相关标签

特朗普 社保税 税收减免 经济影响 社会保障
相关文章