Fortune | FORTUNE 07月02日 05:08
Silicon Valley investor Vinod Khosla predicts AI will replace 80% of jobs by 2030—and take much of the Fortune 500 with it
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风险投资家Vinod Khosla预测,到2030年,人工智能将自动化80%的高价值工作,引发了对财富500强公司的深刻变革。他认为,AI将加速现有巨头的衰落,新的公司将重塑行业规则。Khosla还分享了对医疗保健、机器人、能源等行业的预测,并强调了创业者在AI时代的重要性。他警告了人工智能被用于增强威权主义的风险,并鼓励创业者关注创新,而非过度规避风险。

🤖 **AI驱动的颠覆时代:** Khosla认为当前科技周期“疯狂而 frenetic”,几乎所有工作和物质都将因AI而重塑,变革规模堪比1960年代。

💼 **AI与工作的终结:** 他预测,未来5年内,AI将能完成人类80%的经济价值工作。到2040年,工作将不再是必需,人们将因兴趣而工作,而非谋生。

📉 **财富500强的衰落:** Khosla预言,2030年代财富500强公司的衰落速度将加快,变革将由新公司而非现有巨头引领。

⚕️ **行业变革:** 在医疗保健领域,Khosla设想免费的医疗专业知识,带来无限的初级保健医生、肿瘤学家等。在机器人领域,他预测到2030年代,几乎每个人都将拥有家用人形机器人。在能源领域,他看好核聚变和超高温地热能,认为其将使电力价格低于天然气。

💡 **创业者建议:** Khosla强调创始人驱动的创新,认为专家难以预测未来,而创业者创造未来。他鼓励创业者关注成功的巨大影响,而非过度规避失败的风险。

Tech entrepreneur and investor Vinod Khosla‘s prediction of AI automating 80% of high-value jobs by 2030 coincides with a reckoning for Fortune 500 companies.

Khosla shared his predictions for the future in a wide-ranging interview on the Uncapped with Jack Altman podcast. As a venture capitalist and early investor in companies like Square and Instacart, Khosla offered advice for business leaders on navigating unprecedented changes ahead. Companies like Sears and Toys ‘R’ Us collapsed under digital pressure, but Khosla warns the 2030s will see a “faster demise” of giants as AI rewrites industry rules.

See below for an overview of Khosla’s major predictions for AI, the economy, and more.

Key takeaways:

    Era of unprecedented disruption: Khosla describes the current technology cycle as “crazy and frenetic,” stating, “I’ve never seen a cycle like this… almost every job is being reinvented, every material thing is being reinvented differently with AI as a driver.” He compares the scale of change to the 1960s, noting, “We’re going to see this large change in such a short time, it’s almost hard to imagine how society adjusts.”AI and the end of work: Khosla predicts, “Within the next 5 years, any economically valuable job humans can do, AI will be able to do 80% of it… 80% of all jobs can be done by an AI.” He believes by 2040, “the need to work will go away. People will work on things because they want to, not because they need to pay their mortgage.”  Disruption of the Fortune 500: He forecasts a dramatic acceleration in the demise of large incumbent companies: “One of my predictions is the 2030s will see a faster rate of demise of Fortune 500 companies than we’ve ever seen… that transition won’t happen from existing companies. Somebody new will reinvent this.” 

Predictions by sector:

    Health care: “If all medical expertise is free… you have an unlimited number of primary care doctors, oncologists, gastroenterologists, mental health therapists… how would you redesign the healthcare system?” Khosla argues that entrenched interests and regulatory barriers will slow—but not stop—AI-driven transformation.Robotics: He predicts that “almost everybody in the 2030s will have a humanoid robot at home… probably starting with something narrow like doing your cooking for you.” The main bottleneck is not hardware, but intelligence.Energy: Khosla is “very bullish about energy,” especially fusion and super-hot geothermal, which he believes could make power “cheaper than natural gas.”

Advice for entrepreneurs:

    Societal and geopolitical implications: Khosla warns of the risks of authoritarian regimes using AI for both hard and soft power: “By 2040 the biggest risk we might face… is China using both good AI—cyber AI, warfare AI—but also socially good AI, like free doctors to everybody on the planet… to embed their political philosophy.”Philosophy on venture and innovation: Khosla emphasizes founder-driven innovation: “Innovation only—I can’t think of very many large examples where large innovation came from somebody who was large or in the business… experts are terrible at predicting the future; they extrapolate the past. Entrepreneurs invent the future they want.”On risk and impact: “Most people reduce risk to increase the probability of success. I do the opposite: Start with [the] high consequences of success. I don’t care about the probability of failure.”  

Disclaimer: For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing.

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Vinod Khosla 人工智能 AI自动化 创业 未来趋势
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