Fortune | FORTUNE 18小时前
China fund beats 97% of peers by buying Pop Mart, dumping Moutai
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一位30岁的中国基金经理谢天元,凭借对Z世代消费趋势的精准把握,今年以来其管理的鹏华精选回报灵活配置混合基金回报率高达24%,在同类基金中名列前茅。他果断调整投资组合,将重心转向深受年轻人喜爱的潮流品牌,如泡泡玛特,以应对中国经济面临的挑战。这一策略转变源于他对数字化影响下年轻消费习惯的深刻理解,以及对新兴消费领域增长潜力的敏锐洞察。

🛍️谢天元管理的基金今年回报率达24%,位列同类基金前3%。他通过调整投资组合,押注Z世代消费趋势,以应对中国经济的挑战。

🧸他将基金的头号持仓从白酒股调整为泡泡玛特,反映了文化变革和青年消费对中国投资者的影响。他认为,泡泡玛特在泰国的受欢迎程度预示着巨大的增长潜力。

💡谢天元通过个人兴趣和在线研究相结合,培养了识别有潜力IP品牌的能力。他认为,未来几年,个股层面的机会将增加,他选择具有突破性产品、新商业模式和创新销售渠道的公司。

📈基金重仓股包括泡泡玛特、毛戈平化妆品等,这些公司均受益于Z世代的消费趋势。尽管面临监管和估值压力,谢天元仍对相关股票持乐观态度,认为其增长潜力被低估。

⚠️文章也指出,Z世代概念股的估值可能过高,且受到监管政策的影响。尽管如此,谢天元依然看好他重仓的股票,认为其增长潜力巨大。

A 30-year-old Chinese fund manager is trouncing peers this year with a portfolio stocked with Gen Z-favored names like Pop Mart International Group, betting that new-age shopping trends can help his fund overcome the country’s economic sluggishness.

Xie Tianyuan’s Penghua Selected Return Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund has returned 24% this year, ranking in the top 3% among roughly 2,300 peers, data from fund tracker East Money Information Co. show. That’s a turnaround from its recent past when holdings in traditional sectors like alcoholic beverages and farming dragged performance. 

The Shenzhen-based fund manager, who took over early 2024, wasted little time in replacing what was then the fund’s top holding Kweichow Moutai Co., a baijiu distiller, with the maker of smash-hit Labubu dolls, Pop Mart. 

His repositioning for the fund, which has about $7 million in assets under management, reflects how cultural shifts—brought on by digital influence and youth spending—are creating opportunities for Chinese investors navigating broader challenges in the world’s second-largest economy.  

His conviction strengthened after witnessing the popularity of the toymaker’s products in Thailand, which, he says, signaled “non-linear growth with every metric showing breakout potential.” 

Growing up immersed in Japanese anime culture—his desk is adorned with Dragon Ball Z figurines—Xie said he developed an eye for identifying promising characters or designs, called “IP brands,” by mixing personal fandom and online research. That he himself is demographically a member of Generation Z, the driving force behind China’s new “emotional spending” consumption trend, helps him understand what may resonate beyond advertising and go viral.

“Opportunities in the sector in the years to come will be on the single stock level as the population dividend comes to an end,” he said. “I pick companies that have breakthrough products, new business models and innovative sales channels—products that are both visually appealing and fun.”

His top pick, Pop Mart, accounted for 10.5% of the fund’s total assets as of March, the top end of its maximum ownership in a single stock allowed, filings show. Other big bets include Mao Geping Cosmetics Co., up 83% this year, as well as Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co., and Yantai China Pet Foods Co.

Xie’s strategy lies firmly in targeting the Gen Z consumption trend, where purchase decisions are driven by emotional triggers and hobby interest. Despite looming threats from Donald Trump’s proposed tariff hikes, this behavioral change fueled rallies in pockets of China’s stock market, especially after the momentum from artificial intelligence began to fade. 

Shares of the companies at the heart of this trend—including Pop Mart and Laopu Gold Co., known for distinctive gold pendants—have staged wild gains this year. Laopu is up more than 2,000% since its initial public offering in Hong Kong a year ago. 

Xie’s fund owns shares that trade in the mainland as well as in Hong Kong. A gauge for Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong has risen 20% this year. The mainland’s benchmark, the CSI 300, had edged down 0.3% so far this year.  

The rally has expanded to include sectors like medical aesthetics, pet foods and even vape products. Another potential area for Xie: tapping into the rising popularity of sparkling yellow wine.

“The line between what is considered ‘old’ and ‘new’ consumption is blurring and more companies will join the new consumption pool once they realize that there’s no future for them eking out a survival in their comfort zones,” Xie said. “Even old trees can sprout new shoots.” 

Still, the consumption-driven rally is showing cracks. Pop Mart tumbled after a People’s Daily commentary on June 20 that called for stricter regulation of “blind-box” toys—products in sealed packaging designed to conceal content and induce surprise and greater desire to collect them. Laopu faces greater selling pressure after the lock-up period from its IPO expired Friday. 

Meanwhile, many Gen Z stocks are near or above their average price targets, and in turn, driving analysts to constantly find reasons to bump up their outlook. 

Xie acknowledged that valuations in the sector may be getting ahead of fundamentals, with some stocks already pricing in earnings three to five years ahead. 

Still, he remains overall bullish, particularly on the stocks he’s heavily invested in.

“The gains may look incomprehensible to some people, but it’s actually all rooted in earnings,” he says. “Growth for some is underestimated, while others are just in the early stages of their life cycle.”

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基金经理 Z世代 消费趋势 泡泡玛特
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