Fortune | FORTUNE 06月30日 06:36
Stocks eye fresh highs as tax cuts advance in Senate while Trump balks at extending tariff deadline
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本文探讨了美国市场在特朗普税改和贸易政策双重影响下的前景。尽管参议院在税收和支出方面取得进展,但特朗普对贸易谈判的态度引发了市场担忧。文章分析了股市、油价、国债收益率、美元和黄金等关键市场指标的动态。同时,文章也关注了即将到来的贸易谈判截止日期以及重要经济数据的发布,这些都将对市场产生影响。文章还提到了美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话,为市场提供了更多线索。

📈 股市反应积极:道琼斯工业平均指数期货上涨,标普500指数和纳斯达克指数期货也有所增长,此前这两个指数均创下新高。

💰 税改前景乐观:特朗普的税收减免和支出计划在参议院取得关键进展,这被认为是华尔街预测经济和金融市场增长的关键因素,预计将抵消关税带来的负面影响。

⚠️ 贸易谈判不确定性:特朗普对贸易谈判的态度引发市场担忧,他表示可能不会延长贸易谈判的暂停期,并可能直接通知各国关税税率。此外,他还立即结束了与加拿大的所有贸易谈判。

📅 重要数据将公布:即将公布的经济数据,如制造业指数、职位空缺报告、ADP私营部门就业报告以及每周失业救济申请和月度就业报告,将提供关于关税影响的更多线索。

U.S. markets are poised for new highs as President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda of tax cuts and spending priorities cleared a key hurdle in the Senate, even as he also cast doubt on trade talks.

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 130 points, or 0.3%. S&P 500 futures were up 0.1%, and Nasdaq futures also added 0.1%, after both indexes notched new record highs on Friday.

U.S. oil prices dipped 0.8% to $74.98 per barrel, and Brent crude was flat at $67.77.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury edged down 0.8 basis point to at 4.275%. The dollar fell 0.07% against the euro and 0.06% against the yen. Gold eased 0.06% to $3,285.70 per ounce.

Trump’s top legislative priority—his package of tax cuts and spending priorities—narrowly cleared a key procedural hurdle in the Senate over the weekend.

A final vote is still pending, as senators look to debate the bill and offer amendments. The House of Representatives also must approve the Senate’s version of the bill before it can go the White House for Trump’s signature.

The president has demanded that lawmakers finish the bill before the July 4 holiday. The tax cuts are a key factor in Wall Street’s forecasts for the economy and financial markets, predicting a boost that will help offset a drag from Trump’s tariffs.

Meanwhile, another deadline is fast approaching.

In April, Trump put his reciprocal tariffs on hold for 90 days while his administration engaged in trade negotiations. Stocks have rebounded since then as investors assumed the worst of the trade war was over.

The pause will expire on July 9, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested as recently as Friday that the deadline is flexible. He told Fox Business that about a dozen deals with top trade partners could be wrapped up by Labor Day.

But in an interview that aired on Sunday, Trump said he could instead send letters that simply inform countries of tariff rates they will face.

When asked if the pause will not be extended, he said, “I don’t think I’ll need to because—I could—there’s no big deal.” Trump further clarified his stance on the July 9 deadline, saying “I’m gonna send letters. That’s the end of the trade deal.”

His dismissive attitude toward a deadline extension also comes as Trump said Friday he is ending all trade talks with Canada immediately, citing its plan to levy digital services taxes on U.S. tech giants.

The coming holiday-shortened week also features several high-profile economic datasets that could offer more clues on how tariffs are, or are not, affecting activity.

On Tuesday, the Institute for Supply Management will release its manufacturing index, and the Labor Department issues its job openings report.

On Wednesday, ADP will put out its private-sector payroll report. And on Thursday, the Labor Department will publish weekly unemployment claims and its monthly jobs report. Markets will be closed for the July 4 holiday.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is also scheduled to speak Tuesday at a European Central Bank forum in Sintra, Portugal. That follows two days of testimony on Capitol Hill last week and a post-FOMC press briefing the week before.

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特朗普 税改 贸易 市场
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