Fortune | FORTUNE 06月29日 22:32
After a dramatic vote, the Senate pushes ahead on Trump’s tax break and spending cut plan
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美国参议院在经历激烈辩论后,通过了特朗普的税收减免、削减开支和增加遣返资金的综合方案。该方案的核心在于延长特朗普任期内多项即将到期的税收减免政策,并新增减免项目,同时削减医疗补助、食品券和绿色能源投资。尽管共和党在国会占据多数席位,但在应对民主党反对声音、党内分歧以及来自社会各界的压力方面,面临诸多挑战。该法案能否在7月4日的最后期限前获得通过,仍存在不确定性。

🗳️ 参议院以51-49的投票结果通过了关键程序性步骤,为特朗普的税收减免方案铺平道路。该方案包括延长特朗普任期内的多项税收减免政策,并新增减免项目,如取消小费税。

🏥 该法案同时包含削减医疗补助、食品券和绿色能源投资的措施,这在共和党内部引发争议。一些议员担心医疗补助的削减会影响到民众的医疗保障,而环保人士则担忧绿色能源投资的减少将对相关产业带来负面影响。

⚖️ 该法案在SALT条款(州和地方税收减免)问题上达成妥协,但争议依然存在。最终版本将SALT的上限提高到4万美元,但仅限于五年。这一调整未能完全满足两党的需求,也为后续的讨论埋下了伏笔。

Capping a tumultuous night, the Republican-controlled Senate advanced President Donald Trump’s package of tax breaks, spending cuts and increased deportation money, with more weekend work ahead as Congress races to meet his Fourth of July deadline for passage.

By a 51-49 tally and with Vice President JD Vance at the Capitol to break a potential tie, the Senate cleared a key procedural step Saturday as midnight approached. Voting had come to a standstill, dragging for more than three hours, with holdout senators huddling for negotiations and taking private meetings off the Senate floor. In the end, two Republicans opposed the motion to move ahead on Trump’s signature domestic policy plan, joining all 47 Democrats.

“Tonight we saw a GREAT VICTORY in the Senate,” Trump said in a social media post afterward.

Republicans are using their majorities in Congress to push aside Democratic opposition, but they have run into a series of political and policy setbacks. Not all GOP lawmakers are on board with proposals to reduce spending on Medicaidfood stamps and other programs as a way to help cover the cost of extending some $3.8 trillion in Trump tax breaks.

Trump had lashed out against holdouts, threatening to campaign against one Republican, Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina, who had announced he could not support the bill because of Medicaid cuts that he worried would leave many without health care in his state. A new analysis from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said the Senate version of the bill would increase by 11.8 million the number of people without health insurance in 2034.

Tillis and Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., voted “no.”

Renewed pressure to oppose the 940-page bill came from Elon Musk, who criticized it as “utterly insane and destructive.”

Ahead for senators now will be an all-night debate and amendments. If they are able to pass it, the bill would return to the House for a final round of votes before it could reach the White House. With the narrow Republican majorities in the House and Senate, leaders need almost every lawmaker on board.

Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer of New York said Republicans released the bill “in the dead of night” on Friday and were rushing through before the public fully knew what was in it. He forced a full reading of the text that began late Saturday and continued into Sunday morning.

Tax breaks and core GOP priorities

At its core, the legislation would make permanent many of the tax breaks from Trump’s first term that would otherwise expire by year’s end if Congress fails to act, resulting in a potential tax increase on Americans. The bill would add new breaks, including no taxes on tips, and commit $350 billion to national security, including for Trump’s mass deportation agenda.

But the cutbacks to Medicaid, food stamps and green energy investments are also causing dissent within GOP ranks. Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., said the environmental rollbacks would amount to a “death sentence” for America’s wind and solar industries.

The Republicans are relying on the reductions to offset the lost tax revenues but some lawmakers say the cuts go too far, particularly for people receiving health care through Medicaid. Meanwhile, conservatives, worried about the nation’s debt, are pushing for steeper cuts.

A dramatic roll call

As the roll call teetered, attention turned to Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, who was surrounded by GOP leaders in intense conversation. She voted “yes.”

A short time later, Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., drew holdouts Sen. Rick Scott of Florida, Mike Lee of Utah and Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming to his office. Vance joined in. The talks dragged on.

Then Vance led them all back in to vote.

Later, Scott said he had met with the president, adding, “We all want to get to yes.”

Lee said the group “had an internal discussion about the strategy to achieve more savings and more deficit reduction, and I feel good about the direction where this is going, and more to come.”

Republicans revise after setbacks by Senate’s arbiter

The release of the bill’s draft had been delayed as the Senate parliamentarianreviewed the measure to ensure it complied with the chamber’s strict “Byrd Rule,” named for the late Sen. Robert C. Byrd, D-W.Va. It largely bars policy matters from inclusion in budget bills unless a provision can get 60 votes to overcome objections.

Republicans suffered a series of setbacks after several proposals, including shifting food stamp costs from the federal government to the states or gutting the funding structure of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, were deemed out of compliance with the rules.

But over the past days, Republicans have quickly revised those proposals and reinstated them.

The final text includes a proposal for cuts to the Medicaid provider tax that had run into parliamentary hurdles and objections from several senators worried about the fate of rural hospitals. The new version extends the start date for those cuts and establishes a $25 billion fund to aid rural hospitals and providers.

Top income-earners would see about a $12,000 tax cut under the House bill, while the package would cost the poorest Americans $1,600, the CBO said.

Tussle over SALT

The Senate included a compromise over the so-called SALT provision, a deduction for state and local taxes that has been a top priority of lawmakers from New York and other high-tax states, but the issue remains unsettled.

The current SALT cap is $10,000 a year, and a handful of Republicans wanted to boost it to $40,000 a year. The final draft includes a $40,000 cap, but limits it for five years. Many Republican senators say that is still too generous, but House Republicans are not fully satisfied either.

House Speaker Mike Johnson sent his colleagues home for the weekend with plans to be on call to return to Washington.

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