Fortune | FORTUNE 06月28日 00:29
Fortune 500 giants Nike and Walmart are warning of upcoming price hikes, but tariff-wary Americans are already pulling back on spending
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5月份关键通胀指标有所上升,表明物价上涨依然顽固,而美国民众上月消费支出有所下降。根据美国商务部的数据,5月份物价同比上涨2.3%,高于4月份的2.1%。剔除波动较大的食品和能源类别后,核心物价同比上涨2.7%,也高于上月的2.6%。与此同时,美国消费者支出自1月份以来首次下降0.1%,收入也大幅下降0.4%。尽管如此,数据表明经济增长正在放缓,部分原因是特朗普政府的关税提高了部分商品的价格。消费支出在今年前三个月仅增长0.5%,第二季度前两个月也表现疲软。此外,服务支出增幅仅为0.1%,为四年半以来最小的月度增幅。

📈 5月份关键通胀指标上升:总体物价同比上涨2.3%,核心物价上涨2.7%,均高于美联储2%的目标,表明通胀压力依然存在。

📉 美国消费者支出下降:5月份整体支出下降0.1%,为今年1月以来首次。收入也下降0.4%,反映出消费者对经济前景的谨慎态度。

🚗 汽车消费受关税影响:由于消费者赶在关税生效前购买汽车,导致汽车消费大幅下降,进而影响整体支出。

🏭 关税对物价影响初显:虽然关税对整体物价的影响尚不明显,但一些商品的价格上涨,如耐克预计关税将使其今年损失10亿美元,并将于秋季实施“有针对性的”提价。

🏦 美联储的应对:美联储此前已提高短期利率以抑制通胀,但随着通胀接近目标,一些经济学家认为美联储可能考虑降息。特朗普则批评美联储未降息,但美联储官员表示将关注通胀和经济发展再做决定。

A key inflation gauge moved higher in May in the latest sign that prices remain stubbornly elevated while Americans also cut back on their spending last month.

Prices rose 2.3% in May compared with a year ago, up from just 2.1% in April, the Commerce Department said Friday. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core prices rose 2.7% from a year earlier, an increase from 2.6% the previous month. Both figures are modestly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The Fed tracks core inflation because it typically provides a better guide to where inflation is headed.

At the same time, Americans cut back on spending for the first time since January, as overall spending fell 0.1%. Incomes dropped a sharp 0.4%. Both figures were distorted by one-time changes: Spending on cars plunged, pulling down overall spending, because Americans had moved more quickly to buy vehicles in the spring to get ahead of tariffs.

And incomes dropped after a one-time adjustment to Social Security benefits had boosted payments in March and April. Social Security payments were raised for some retirees who had worked for state and local governments.

Still, the data suggests that growth is cooling as Americans become more cautious, in part because President Donald Trump’s tariffs have raised the cost of some goods, such as appliances, tools, and audio equipment. Consumer sentiment has also fallen sharply this year in the wake of the sometimes-chaotic rollout of the duties. And while the unemployment rate remains low, hiring has been weak, leaving those without jobs struggling to find new work.

Consumer spending rose just 0.5% in the first three months of this year and has been sluggish in the first two months of the second quarter.

And spending on services ticked up just 0.1% in May, the smallest montly increase in four and a half years.

“Because consumers are not in a strong enough shape to handle those (higher prices), they are spending less on recreation, travel, hotels, that type of thing,” said Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust.

Spending on airfares, restaurant meals, and hotels all fell last month, Friday’s report showed.

At the same time, the figures suggest that President Donald Trump’s broad-based tariffs are still having only a modest effect on overall prices. The increasing costs of some goods have been partly offset by falling prices for new cars, airline fares, and apartment rentals, among other items.

On a monthly basis, in fact, inflation was mostly tame. Prices rose just 0.1% in May from April, according to the Commerce Department, the same as the previous month. Core prices climbed 0.2% in May, more than economists expected and above last month’s 0.1%. Gas prices fell 2.6% just from April to May.

Economists point to several reasons for why Trump’s tariffs have yet to accelerate inflation, as many analysts expected. Like American consumers, companies imported billions of dollars of goods in the spring before the duties took full affect, and many items currently on store shelves were imported without paying higher levies.

There are early indications that that is beginning to change.

Nike announced this week that it expects U.S. tariffs will cost the company $1 billion this year. It will institute “surgical” price increases in the fall. It’s not the first retailer to warn of price hikes when students are heading back to school.

Walmart said last month that that its customers will start to see higher prices this month and next as back-to-school shopping goes into high gear.

Also, much of what the U.S. imports is made up of raw materials and parts that are used to make goods in the U.S. It can take time for those higher input costs to show up in consumer prices. Economists at JPMorgan have argued that many companies are absorbing the cost of the tariffs, for now. Doing so can reduce their profit margins, which could weigh on hiring.

Cooling inflation has put more of a spotlight on the Federal Reserve and its chair, Jerome Powell. The Fed ramped up its short-term interest rate in 2022 and 2023 to slow the economy and combat inflation, which jumped to a four-decade high nearly three years ago. With price increases now nearly back to the Fed’s target, some economists — and some Fed officials — say that the central bank could reduce its rate back to a level that doesn’t slow or stimulate growth.

Trump has also repeatedly attached the Fed for not cutting rates, calling Powell a “numskull” and a “fool.”

But Powell said in congressional testimony earlier this week that the Fed wants to see how inflation and the economy evolve before it cuts rates. Most other Fed policymakers have expressed a similar view.

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