AsianFin -- Since the beginning of 2025, Bitcoin has been on a rollercoaster ride—forging new highs above $105,000 in early June before tumbling below $99,000 amid rising geopolitical and inflation worries.
On June 6, Bitcoin dropped more than 3.5%, falling under $101,000. It later rebounded to approximately $104,200 by June 20, before plunging to its lowest point in over a month—below $99,000—after escalating Middle East tensions triggered massive crypto liquidation.
Over the past 18 months, strong structural forces have buoyed Bitcoin’s rally. The April 2024 halving tightened supply while both retail and institutional demand surged. Long-term holders now control record amounts of Bitcoin, and wallets holding over 10 BTC continue rising. Recent inflows into institutional products like BlackRock’s IBIT ETF—raising over $560 million last week—also underscore growing demand.
Still, volatility remains a key theme. From June 13 to 22, a wave of panic selling following Israel’s airstrikes on Iran triggered over $1 billion in liquidations, tanking Bitcoin from $112,000 to $98,200 in a flash crash. U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs saw six consecutive days of outflows, totaling $644 million.
The tide turned on June 23 after a ceasefire, sparking a sharp V-shaped recovery. Bitcoin surged 5% and reclaimed the $106,000 level, liquidating close to $500 million in short positions.
But market watchers caution caution. Whale activity and ETF demand have eased by roughly 50%, and new investor interest is softening. On-chain metrics show key support levels at $92,000 for trader cost base and a deeper floor at $81,000.
Aside from crypto, the Middle East turmoil also rippled through other markets. Oil prices spiked on fears of disrupted supply via the Strait of Hormuz, while gold rallied above $3,300 per ounce as investors flocked to safe havens. Regional equities in Israel and Iran were hit hard, and U.S. markets—particularly tech and risk-sensitive Nasdaq stocks—experienced increased volatility.
So, what’s next?
The next Bitcoin halving is still months away, but supply constraints remain a bullish driver. Institutional participation, especially through ETFs, continues to lend support.
Policy developments are promising: Texas has set up a $10 million Bitcoin reserve, and U.S. regulators like the FHFA are exploring crypto in mortgage eligibility—steps that could foster long-term mainstream adoption.
Bitcoin’s emerging role as a “wartime financial asset” has drawn attention. From Iran to Gaza, crypto played crucial roles when traditional infrastructure faltered—Ukraine’s early war-time crypto donations alone totaled over $127 million.
Still, macro risks loom large. A slowdown in global growth or a pivot toward tighter monetary policy could pressure risk assets like Bitcoin. And as interest rates rise, some capital may rotate back into traditional markets.
Bitcoin’s 2025 has been defined by soaring highs, sharp corrections, and a growing role as both a speculative asset and crisis hedge. While structural trends remain bullish, short-term volatility tied to geopolitics and macro conditions could weigh heavily on price action in the months ahead.
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