Fortune | FORTUNE 13小时前
Dow futures drop 150 points while oil prices jump after the U.S. bombs Iran’s nuclear sites and widens Mideast conflict
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文章探讨了美国空袭伊朗核设施后,华尔街对中东局势升级的反应。尽管特朗普政府强调行动目标明确,但市场仍显焦虑,道指期货下跌,油价飙升。专家观点分歧,有分析师认为短期冲击后市场将回稳,也有机构指出油价上涨可能不会持久。文章还关注了美国国债、美元和黄金等避险资产的表现,以及未来一周重要的经济数据发布,包括美联储官员讲话、楼市数据和通胀指标,预示市场将迎来波动。

💣 美军空袭伊朗核设施后,市场反应谨慎。道琼斯工业平均指数期货下跌,标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克指数期货亦有所下滑,反映出市场对局势升级的担忧。

⛽ 油价大幅上涨,布伦特原油和美国原油分别上涨3.5%。尽管如此,能源分析公司Kpler认为,伊朗的报复能力有限,霍尔木兹海峡关闭的可能性较低,且OPEC+可能增产,或将缓解油价上涨压力。

🛡️ 避险资产表现分化。10年期美国国债收益率持平,美元对欧元和日元下跌,而黄金价格上涨,反映出投资者对避险资产的需求增加,以及对美元信心的动摇。

📅 未来一周将公布关键经济数据。包括美联储官员讲话、楼市数据、贸易逆差以及美联储首选的通胀指标个人消费支出价格指数,这些数据将对市场走势产生重要影响。

U.S. stock futures signaled anxiety Sunday night as Wall Street weighed the implications of deepening U.S. involvement in the Middle East with its attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

President Donald Trump and other administration officials stressed that the airstrikes on Saturday night were targeted at Tehran’s nuclear program and not aimed at regime change nor the start of a wider war that would require boots on the ground.

But the direct involvement in offensive operations—which included massive “bunker busters” dropped from stealth bombers—in what had been a conflict primarily between Israel and Iran still marked a major escalation.

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 152 points, or 0.36%. S&P 500 futures were down 0.39%, and Nasdaq futures slipped 0.53%.

Earlier on Sunday before premarket trading began, Wedbush Securities Managing Director Dan Ives had a bullish take for Wall Street in the wake of the U.S. attack on Iran.

“The market will view this Iran threat as now gone and that is a positive for growth in the broader Middle East and ultimately the tech sector,” he posted on X. “It will take some time for this conflict to settle, but the market will view the worst is now in the rear-view mirror. Expect stocks up.”

U.S. oil prices surged 3.5% to $76.44 per barrel, and Brent crude leapt 3.5% to $79.70.

While global markets had been expecting to see an initial jolt for oil, energy analytics firm Kpler pointed to other mitigating factors that could soften the blow eventually.

“Expect oil to open with a sharp 7–10% gap up as risk premiums surge. But don’t be fooled, this may not last,” it posted on X.

Iran’s ability to retaliate is constrained, Kpler noted, saying a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely. Meanwhile, an early OPEC+ output boost for August of 411,000 barrels per day or more is increasingly likely, it added.

Escalation of the Middle East conflict could be a test of whether U.S. bonds and the dollar are still seen as safe-haven assets in times of crisis.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury virtually flat at 4.377%. The dollar fell 0.29% against the euro and 0.24% against the yen. Gold, which is emerging as an alternative to the dollar, rose 0.2% to $3,393.00 per ounce.

The coming week will feature several key events on economic reports. Several Federal Reserve officials will speak throughout the week, including Chairman Jerome Powell appearing on Capitol Hill on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Data for existing home sales, new home sales, and pending sales are due Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday, respectively, as the housing market shows signs of oversupply and weak demand.

Also on Thursday, an initial reading on the trade deficit will come out amid Trump’s tariffs along with durable-goods orders.

On Friday, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption and expenditures price index, is due.

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中东冲突 市场反应 油价 经济数据
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