Fortune | FORTUNE 11小时前
U.S. attacks on Iran resemble a ‘TikTok-style war’ and may be peak military involvement, geopolitical expert says
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欧亚集团总裁Ian Bremmer认为,美国对伊朗核设施的空袭更像是一次“TikTok式”的短暂打击,而非长期冲突的开始。他将其与特朗普政府此前采取的类似行动进行对比,认为这可能是军事介入的顶点。华尔街分析师也表示,市场将认为最糟糕的时期已经过去。文章分析了空袭的性质、伊朗可能的反应以及对市场的影响,并探讨了地缘政治风险和市场情绪之间的关系。

💥 Ian Bremmer认为,此次空袭更像是“TikTok式”的短暂打击,而非长期战争的开始。他将之与特朗普政府此前下令击杀伊朗军方将领苏莱曼尼的行动相提并论,认为这可能代表了军事行动的峰值。

🧐 Bremmer分析,伊朗的反应可能类似于此前对美国基地的象征性报复,旨在避免造成重大损害。他认为,只要伊朗的反应没有导致大量美国军人伤亡,那么美国此次行动可能就已达到顶峰。

⛽️ Bremmer预计伊朗不会关闭霍尔木兹海峡,因为其出口导向的石油基础设施并未受到攻击。此前以色列的袭击主要针对服务于国内消费者的伊朗能源基础设施。

📈 华尔街分析师Dan Ives认为,市场将此次伊朗威胁视为已过,这对中东地区乃至科技行业都是积极的。他预测市场将认为最糟糕的时期已经过去,并预计股市将上涨。

    The U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s top nuclear facilities are not the start of a prolonged campaign, according to the Eurasia Group’s Ian Bremmer. Instead, they look more like a dramatic attack that could represent the peak, he said, comparing it to the brief, catchy videos on TikTok. Separately, a top Wall Street analyst said markets will assume the worst is now over.

With President Donald Trump eager to avoid a getting mired in a drawn-out conflict with Iran, the U.S. airstrikes on the regime’s nuclear sites could represent the peak military involvement, according to Ian Bremmer, president of political risk research and consulting firm Eurasia Group.

In a video posted on Sunday, the geopolitical expert drew a distinction between prolonged wars that become fodder for multi-episode documentaries versus attacks that resemble brief, catchy videos on TikTok.

“At this moment, this is not the Americans beginning a large-scale, grinding, drag-out, Ken Burns-style war, which would be strongly opposed by most Americans and a lot in Trump’s own base,” he Bremmer said. “But rather the sort of very, very spectacular—couple of major strikes and done—TikTok-style war, which Trump’s base can certainly get behind.”

He pointed out that Trump made a similarly dramatic move during his first term that didn’t lead to a major escalation. In January 2020, he ordered the killing of Qasem Soleimani, a top Iranian military commander, in response to attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq and Saudi oil facilities.

Iran’s retaliation was a symbolic attack against U.S. bases that was not meant to cause a lot of damage, Bremmer said, adding that Trump expects a similar response this time.

“If it’s done by Iranian proxies, and it doesn’t cause a lot of damage—specifically if it doesn’t lead to American servicemen and women getting killed in large number—it is plausible that this is kind of the peak of what the United States does,” Bremmer said. “And then it’s not the U.S. and ongoing war. Rather it’s a big win. It’s not peace, but it’s a big win for Trump. And it’s an even bigger win for the Israeli prime minister.”

Bremmer also doesn’t expect Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for the global energy trade, given that the county’s export-oriented oil infrastructure hasn’t been targeted by Israeli or U.S. missiles. Earlier Israeli attacks hit Iranian energy infrastructure that serves domestic consumers.

Wedbush Securities Managing Director Dan Ives had a bullish take for Wall Street in the wake of the U.S. attack on Iran.

“The market will view this Iran threat as now gone and that is a positive for growth in the broader Middle East and ultimately the tech sector,” he posted on X. “It will take some time for this conflict to settle, but the market will view the worst is now in the rear-view mirror. Expect stocks up.”

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美伊冲突 地缘政治 市场反应 伊核设施
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