Fortune | FORTUNE 06月22日 11:24
US attacks three nuclear sites in Iran, widening conflict
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美国总统特朗普下令对伊朗的三个主要核设施发动空袭,并威胁如果伊朗不屈服,将采取更多袭击,此举直接将美国卷入与以色列的冲突,这与他长期以来避免新战争的承诺相悖。特朗普表示,伊朗的关键核设施已被完全摧毁,并警告称,如果伊朗不寻求和平,未来的袭击将更加猛烈。此举引发伊朗谴责,并可能导致美国在中东地区的资产受到攻击,加剧地区紧张局势。国际社会对事态发展表示担忧,并呼吁各方保持克制,避免冲突进一步升级。

💥 美国总统特朗普下令空袭伊朗的三个主要核设施,包括福尔多、纳坦兹和伊斯法罕,旨在摧毁伊朗的核武器制造能力,并阻止其对恐怖主义的支持。

📢 特朗普威胁,如果伊朗不寻求和平,将面临“更大”的袭击,这加剧了美国在中东冲突中更深介入的可能性。伊朗外长谴责此举,称其将产生“持久的后果”。

⚠️ 此次袭击标志着特朗普政府的重大升级行动,此前以色列已开始对伊朗进行空袭。这一行动违背了美国盟友和联合国核监督机构的建议,后者警告不要袭击核设施,以免造成辐射泄漏。

🔥 袭击可能导致伊朗袭击美国在中东的资产,并可能采取网络攻击等报复措施。伊朗还可能退出《不扩散核武器条约》,这将减少国际社会对伊朗核设施的了解。

🌍 全球经济可能受到影响,特别是石油和液化天然气价格可能上涨。约占全球每日石油供应五分之一的霍尔木兹海峡,位于伊朗和海湾阿拉伯邻国之间,可能成为潜在的冲突点。

US President Donald Trump said American bombers struck Iran’s three main nuclear sites and threatened more attacks if Tehran doesn’t capitulate, pulling the US directly into the country’s conflict with Israel despite his longtime promises to avoid new wars.

Addressing the nation, Trump said Iran’s “key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated.” He threatened “far greater” attacks if Iran doesn’t now make peace, raising the specter of even deeper US involvement in the Middle Eastern conflict.

Trump had said earlier in a social media post that a “payload of BOMBS” was dropped on Fordow, the uranium-enrichment site buried deep under a mountain and seen as vulnerable only to “bunker buster” munitions that the US possesses. Natanz and Isfahan, two other sites, were also struck.

“Our objective was the destruction of Iran’s nuclear enrichment capacity and a stop to the nuclear threat posed by the world’s No. 1 state sponsor of terror,” Trump said. “Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. If they do not, future attacks will be far greater — and a lot easier.”

Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said the US’s move is “outrageous and will have everlasting consequences.”

Live Blog: US Says It Launched Airstrikes on Iran Nuclear Sites

“Iran reserves all options to defend its sovereignty, interest, and people,” he said.

Tehran’s nuclear regulatory agency said there was no sign of radiation contamination at the sites and that it had taken precautions in anticipation of an attack.

Nonetheless, the move marks an extraordinary escalation by the president after Israel began airstrikes across Iran on June 13. It amounts to the most serious foreign-policy decision of his two terms so far.

Trump’s decision goes against the advice of US allies in Europe and the Middle East, as well as the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog. Known as the International Atomic Energy Agency, it has repeatedly warned that nuclear facilities must not be attacked given the potential for radiation leaks.

Iran has long said it doesn’t want a nuclear bomb, and Trump’s own intelligence agencies had assessed recently it still hadn’t committed to developing such a weapon. Trump, however, had dismissed those findings and had declined to rule out joining the Israeli strikes, which had also killed several prominent Iranian military officials and nuclear scientists.

Fears about Iran’s nuclear program among Western and Arab nations have grown in recent years because the Islamic Republic has enriched uranium far beyond the levels needed for civilian purposes such as fueling nuclear power plants. It’s processing uranium almost to the levels needed to make a bomb, without giving a clear reason why.

The US strikes could lead to attacks on American assets in the Middle East. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned Washington of “irreparable damage” if it bombed his country.

The US will likely have to put its troops on high alert. It has around 50,000 service members in the region, the bulk being in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

Qatar hosts the largest US base in the area. Called Al Udeid, it’s also the regional headquarters for US Central Command, which oversees the American military in the Middle East. Bahrain is the site of the US’s main naval base there.

Trump’s combative language in the last couple of days had also triggered new threats from the Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen. The president agreed a ceasefire with the Houthis in early May. If that falls apart, US naval ships in the Red Sea could once again come under assault from the group’s drones and missiles.

Iran’s retaliation could also come in the form of cyber attacks against American or Israeli interests.

It’s also possible that Tehran opts to leave the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, according to Ali Vaez, the director of the International Crisis Group’s Iran Project and a long-time analyst of the country’s atomic program. The NPT is the bedrock arms-control agreement that compels signatories to accept inspections from the IAEA. If Iran left, the world would get even less information about what remains of its atomic sites.

Earlier Saturday, the State Department said the US had begun evacuating US citizens from Israel. The agency organized two flights to Athens from Tel Aviv with about 70 US citizens, family members and permanent residents.

“I hope that the Iranians are measured in their response but there will be a response,” said Barbara Slavin, a distinguished fellow at the Stimson Center. “This is an act of war by the United States against a foreign country which has not attacked us lately. Americans are at risk all over the Middle East, all over the world.”

Citing a US official it didn’t identify, the New York Times reported that six B-2 bombers dropped a dozen of the 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs on Fordow. It said two other B-2s dropped bunker-busters on Natanz and fired cruise missiles at Natanz and Isfahan.

Israel was notified in advance of the strikes, according to a person familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations. Trump spoke to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after the attacks, a senior White House official said. Netanyahu later said the US and Israel had had coordinated fully on them.

Fears of an impending strike had eased after Trump’s team said on Thursday he would make a decision within two weeks. On Friday, the foreign ministers of France, Germany and the UK met their Iranian counterpart, Araghchi, in Geneva to try to get Tehran to restart nuclear talks with the US.

Iran had been in negotiations with the US for about two months, but called them off after Israel started bombing its territory. The two has made some progress toward a deal that would curb Tehran’s atomic activities in return for sanctions relief, but stalled on enrichment. Iran insisted it must be allowed to continue that process, even if to the low level needed for civilian purposes. Trump and Israel said it shouldn’t be able to carry out any enrichment at all.

Energy Prices

The war between Israel and Iran had evoked fears of a regional conflict that results in massive civilian casualties, and disrupts the flow of energy and other trade through the region. Those concerns among world powers and investors will only increase.

Read More: Trump’s Airstrikes on Iran Leave Oil Market Poised for Surge

The most immediate impact on the global economy could be through higher oil and liquefied natural gas prices. About a fifth of the world’s daily oil supply goes through the Strait of Hormuz, which lies between Iran and its Gulf Arab neighbors such as Saudi Arabia. One option for Iran would be to hit or hassle crude and LNG tankers passing through the area.

For days, Trump had faced conflicting advice from his supporters, after he campaigned on promises to keep the US out of foreign wars, pointing to American involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq this century. MAGA allies, including longtime Trump supporter Steve Bannon, have warned against any US intervention, insisting this is Israel’s fight to finish.

Other Republicans urged Trump to join the fight against Iran, arguing that Tehran was more vulnerable following Israel’s attacks. They said it was an opportunity to deliver on the president’s pledge that Iran’s regime would never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon.

Trump and his advisers suggested in recent days that any strike would be limited. Trump briefed Senate Majority Leader John Thune and House Speaker Mike Johnson, according to people familiar with the matter.

“This is not the start of a forever war,” Senator Jim Risch, an Idaho Republican and chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said on X. “There will not be American boots on the ground in Iran. This was a precise, limited strike, which was necessary and by all accounts was very successful.”

Read More: What If Iran Tries to Close the Strait of Hormuz?: QuickTake

Israel said its attacks on Iran were aimed at setting back or destroying its nuclear program. Those seriously damaged Iranian military sites and some nuclear facilities. They also neutralized Iran’s air defenses, given Israeli planes dominance over Iran’s airspace and making a US strike easier.

Israel needed the US because it lacked the heavy bombs and B-2 stealth jets required to destroy nuclear sites buried deep underground at Fordow and Natanz.

Natanz’s above-ground facilities were already damaged by Israeli strikes, but not its enrichment sites underground. Fordow was likely unscathed by Israel’s attacks.

Tehran responded to Israeli bombing by firing waves of ballistic missiles and drones at the Jewish state.

While around 24 people have been killed in Israel and hundreds injured, according to the government, Iran’s attacks have waned in recent days, suggesting its trying to preserve its weaponry.

Read More: In Tehran, Iranians Brace for What’s Next in Unpredictable War

Iran’s government says at least 200 people, mostly civilians, have been killed by Israel’s attacks.

“Iran is going to be facing a real dilemma, because they’ve already been dramatically weakened,” said Dennis Ross, who served as former US President Bill Clinton’s Middle East envoy and is now a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “They will try to do something to show they didn’t just capitulate or submit, but they have their own interest in trying to limit this.”

Read More: Xi Shows No Sign of Rescuing Iran as Trump Ramps Up Pressure

Iran’s ability to react may be limited by its economic weakness, with inflation running at around 40%. It is also largely isolated internationally. While allies such as Russia and China condemned Israel’s strikes and warned against US intervention, they’ve offered little concrete support to Tehran.

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