Published on June 20, 2025 4:40 PM GMT

The question, “Will I go bald?” has haunted many a rationalist (and more than a few mirrors), but rarely receives a genuinely Bayesian treatment. In this essay, I combine personal risk factors, family history, and population-level genetics to estimate my absolute risk of androgenetic alopecia - laying out priors, likelihoods, and posteriors with as much fidelity as the literature allows. Includes explicit probability estimates, references, and a meta-discussion on the limits of current predictive models. (And a lot of jokes that may or may not land) Feedback on both methodology and inference welcome.