文章深入剖析了人工智能发展中的关键问题，即如何确保高级智能体（AGI和ASI）在道德上符合人类期望，不致于反叛人类。作者对各种观点进行了全面讨论，从AGI和ASI的可能性到其对人类的影响，以及应采取的监管措施等，为读者提供了深入的见解。

🤖 文章首先强调了AGI和ASI的发展对全球经济和政治秩序的潜在影响，涉及数百万亿美元的净值以及足以颠覆当前世界秩序的政治力量。这一背景突显了问题的紧迫性和重要性。

🧠 作者指出，尽管关于AGI和ASI的讨论沸沸扬扬，但一个不容忽视的事实是，没有人知道如何确保这些高级智能体在道德上符合人类的期望，这是一个简单且无可争辩的事实。

🔍 文章接着对那些认为AGI和ASI不可能实现、认为它们会在未来几个世纪出现、或者认为它们会对人类友好等观点进行了逐一分析，并对加速AI研究是否会带来灾难性风险、公司是否会设计出行为良好的AI、以及现有法律是否足够等问题进行了深入探讨。

🌐 对于国际条约的有效性、美中冷战对AI发展的影响、以及开源AGI代码是否为解决方案等议题，作者也提出了自己的见解，认为我们不能简单地放弃监管，任由“妖怪出笼”。

💡 最后，文章对那些担忧AGI发展的人进行了回应，认为这种担忧并非无的放矢，而是基于对未来的深思熟虑和责任感。

Published on July 11, 2024 11:53 PM GMT

He starts by emphasizing

The issue is so hotly debated because the stakes are major: According to some estimates, quadrillions of dollars of net present value are up for grabs, not to mention political power great enough to significantly disrupt the current world order.

[...]

The most important thing to realize, through all the noise of discussions and debates, is a very simple and indisputable fact: while we are racing towards AGI or even ASI, nobody currently knows how such an AGI or ASI could be made to behave morally, or at least behave as intended by its developers and not turn against humans.

And goes on to do a pretty great job addressing "those who think

AGI and ASI are impossible or are centuries in the futureAGI is possible but only in many decadesthat we may reach AGI but not ASI, those who think that AGI and ASI will be kind to usthat corporations will only design well-behaving AIs and existing laws are sufficientwho think that we should accelerate AI capabilities research and not delay benefits of AGItalking about catastrophic risks will hurt efforts to mitigate short-term human-rights issues with AIconcerned with the US-China cold warthat international treaties will not workthe genie is out of the bottle and we should just let go and avoid regulationthat open-source AGI code and weights are the solutionworrying about AGI is falling for Pascal’s wager"

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