taiyangnews 06月11日 22:38
Hail Costliest Weather Risk For Solar Power Projects
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本文聚焦光伏电站面临的风险,包括冰雹、火灾、热斑以及网络攻击等。冰雹是造成最大损失的因素,占比高达73%;火灾风险主要源于植被管理不善。报告还指出,热斑发生率逐年上升,AI在风险评估中也存在误判风险。此外,数字化的发展也增加了光伏电站遭受网络攻击的可能性。报告强调了增强基础设施的韧性和安全性,以保障清洁能源的稳定供应。

🌧️ 冰雹是光伏电站最大的损失来源,造成的损失占总损失的73%,但仅占损失事件的6%。分析师建议使用更厚的钢化玻璃组件,并采用更陡的倾斜角度,以减少冰雹造成的损坏。

🔥 火灾是光伏电站第二大成本风险,主要由植被过度生长引起。60Hertz Energy指出,远处的野火烟雾可能导致项目每年损失6%的收入。严格的植被管理、正确的布线以及与当地消防部门的协调,有助于降低火灾风险。

☀️ 热斑发生率正在上升。Zeitview的数据显示,北美地区的热斑发生率从2023年的0.24%上升到2024年的0.81%。报告指出,半切组件在2023年和2024年的热斑率最高,这可能与制造或串联组装中的不一致性有关。

🤖 人工智能(AI)在评估运营风险时可能出现误判。kWh Analytics的数据工程师Mike Mousou表示,未经特定领域培训的AI模型可能会误分类多达20%的光伏运营问题。负责任地实施AI需要持续的模型验证、透明的应用实践和高质量的数据管理。

🛡️ 数字化的发展增加了光伏和储能资产遭受网络攻击的风险。报告强调,电网的未来不仅取决于清洁能源的部署量,还取决于其背后基础设施的韧性和安全性。

Even as solar PV technology continues to evolve with innovations aimed at reliability and component efficiency, solar panels in the field remain at the mercy of extreme weather events. Among these, hail accounts for 73% of total losses by damage amount, even as it represents only 6% of loss incidents, according to kWh Analytics.  

It thus represents one of the most severe financial risks, with the losses having gone up by 8% year-on-year (YoY). Central Michigan University believes 99.27% of PV plants have a 10% annual chance of seeing hail bigger than 2 inches in their close proximity.

Since hail causes most damage by the breakage of glass, analysts recommend using modules with thicker, tempered glass and advanced stow protocols for steeper tilt angles to minimize damage. GroundWork Renewables recommends using 3.2 mm/2 mm glass-glass modules,  

Fire is the 2nd most costly risk for solar installations, and it is significantly driven by overgrown vegetation. Projects can experience a 6% annual loss in revenues from far-away wildfire smoke, says 60Hertz Energy. Strict vegetation management, proper wiring, and coordination with local fire departments can help mitigate the risks.  

Climate insurance company kWh Analytics shares these observations in its 7th annual Solar Risk Assessment (SRA) report, which provides a data-driven evaluation of risks for solar and battery energy storage systems (BESS).  

Apart from these weather-related risks, according to the report, solar installations are also impacted by increasing hot spot occurrences. Zeitview, another contributing author to this report, believes hot spot prevalence on sites increased from 0.24% in 2023 to 0.81% in 2024 in North America. The report writers count the highest hot spot rates in 2023 and 2024 for half-cut modules that also went up on a year-on-year (YoY) basis, attributing this to inconsistencies during manufacturing or string assembly. 

An intriguing risk factor specified in the report is the increasing use of artificial intelligence (AI) to assess operational risks. Mike Mousou, kWh Analytics’ Data Engineer,  says that AI models misclassify up to 20% of solar operational issues without domain-specific training.  

“Implementing AI responsibly demands ongoing model validation, transparent application practices, and high-quality data curation to ensure these powerful tools deliver accurate and reliable benefits to the solar industry,” states Mousou. 

Increased digitalization is also exposing solar and storage assets to the risk of cyberattacks owing to highly connected assets and the use of advanced monitoring systems that are aimed at improving efficiency. The future of the grid will depend not just on how much clean energy is deployed, but on how resilient and secure the infrastructure behind it remains, reads the report.

The complete report is available for free download on kWh Analytics’ website

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光伏电站 风险评估 冰雹 火灾 人工智能
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