The newly House-passed bill, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), poses a major threat to the US clean energy transition, threatening to derail 603 GW of planned renewable energy projects scheduled to come online by 2028 or later, cautions Cleanview in a new report.
This comprises 223 GW of solar and 114 GW of wind energy projects, but the worst hit will be 265 GW worth of storage projects. Analysts count 318 GW of solar, wind and storage capacity to come online in 2029 or later.
Cleanview, which tracks more than 10,000 clean energy projects, believes the financial viability of the stated capacity will be compromised in the event of losing their tax credit eligibility (see US House Passes Bill Threatening Clean Energy Incentives).
Trouble with the current form of the OBBBA
The House-passed bill, if cleared by the Senate in its present form, will require projects to start construction within 60 days of the enactment of the act, expected around July 2025. In this scenario, developers will have roughly 8 weeks to finalize financing, secure permits, mobilize equipment, and break ground. This compares with the average delay of 16 months that clean energy projects have been experiencing, says Cleanview, citing a 2024 American Clean Power Association report.
Additionally, projects will be required to become fully operational by December 31, 2028, failing which they stand to lose all tax credit eligibility. In comparison, under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), projects are eligible for clean energy credits well into the 2030s if they begin construction by a certain date to lock in eligibility.
“This creates much more risk for a project developer who has little control over whether a local county issues their permit or if a 100-year pandemic wreaks havoc on global supply chains,” explains Cleanview CEO Michael Thomas.
Where is the greatest risk?
For this analysis, Cleanview says it focused on projects that would be at risk of missing the 2028 deadline. A large chunk of this capacity is planned for California, with nearly 80% of all planned clean energy projects at risk, according to the analysts. Texas follows next, as between 36 GW and 128 GW is threatened by an end to tax credits. Across the PJM, NYISO and ISO NE markets, Cleanview counts 91 GW of clean energy capacity at risk.
Cancellation of this capacity will raise energy prices for the end consumers in the face of rising demand by 50% by 2035, it adds. Job loss will be another major side effect with workforce reduction by not only developers, but also manufacturers.
Thomas points out, “Losing this planned electricity generation capacity also threatens one of the Trump administration’s top goals: beating China in the race to develop artificial intelligence. Less generation capacity would make it difficult for new data centers to come online. The data centers that are able to connect would be forced to pay higher prices.”
Cleanview echoes fears expressed by the US Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) last month when it said that the US would cede AI and cleantech leadership to China if the bill is cleared. It also said that the OBBBA could jeopardize nearly 300 solar and storage factories (see SEIA: 300 Solar & Storage Factories At Risk With US Legislation).
