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Sam Altman thinks AI will have ‘novel insights’ next year
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OpenAI的CEO Sam Altman在最新文章中展望了未来15年AI将如何改变人类体验。文章预示了AGI的潜力,并暗示OpenAI正致力于开发能产生新见解的AI系统。Altman的文章常预示着OpenAI的未来发展方向,包括AI对工作、能源和社会契约的颠覆。文章中,Altman提到2026年可能出现能产生新见解的AI系统,这与OpenAI专注于让AI模型产生新想法的努力相符。文章也提到了其他公司在类似领域的进展,以及AI在科学研究和发现中的潜在应用,但同时也指出了AI在生成真正原创见解方面面临的挑战。

💡 Altman在文章中展望了未来15年AI的发展,预示了AGI的潜力,并暗示OpenAI正在努力开发能够产生新见解的AI系统。

🚀 Altman提到,2026年世界“可能”会看到能够产生新见解的AI系统,这表明OpenAI可能正在加大力度开发此类AI。

🔍 OpenAI的竞争对手也在努力开发能够帮助科学家提出新假设的AI模型,这可能加速科学发现的进程,例如Google的AlphaEvolve和FutureHouse的AI工具。

🤔 尽管AI在生成新见解方面展现出潜力,但面临诸多挑战,例如Hugging Face的首席科学官认为现代AI系统无法提出好问题,而这对于科学突破至关重要。

🚧 尽管存在挑战,OpenAI的未来发展方向值得关注,Altman的文章预示了OpenAI可能在AI生成新见解方面取得的进展。

In a new essay published Tuesday called “The Gentle Singularity,” OpenAI CEO Sam Altman shared his latest vision for how AI will change the human experience over the next 15 years.

The essay is a classic example of Altman’s futurism: hyping up the promise of AGI — and arguing that his company is quite close to the feat — while simultaneously downplaying its arrival. The OpenAI CEO frequently publishes essays of this nature, cleanly laying out a future in which AGI disrupts our modern conception of work, energy, and the social contract. But often, Altman’s essays contain hints about what OpenAI is working on next.

At one point in the essay, Altman claimed that next year, in 2026, the world will “likely see the arrival of [AI] systems that can figure out novel insights.” While this is somewhat vague, OpenAI executives have recently indicated that the company is focused on getting AI models to come up with new, interesting ideas about the world.

When announcing OpenAI’s o3 and o4-mini AI reasoning models in April, co-founder and President Greg Brockman said these were the first models that scientists had used to generate new, helpful ideas.

Altman’s blog post suggests that in the coming year, OpenAI itself may ramp up its efforts to develop AI that can generate novel insights. OpenAI certainly wouldn’t be the only company focused on this effort — several of OpenAI’s competitors have shifted their focus to training AI models that can help scientists come up with new hypotheses, and thus, novel discoveries about the world.

In May, Google released a paper on AlphaEvolve, an AI coding agent that the company claims to have generated novel approaches to complex math problems. Another startup backed by former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, FutureHouse, claims its AI agent tool has been capable of making a genuine scientific discovery. In May, Anthropic launched a program to support scientific research.

If successful, these companies could automate a key part of the scientific process, and potentially break into massive industries such as drug discovery, material science, and other fields with science at their core.

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This wouldn’t be the first time Altman has tipped his hat about OpenAI’s plans in a blog. In January, Altman wrote another blog post suggesting that 2025 would be the year of agents. His company then proceeded to drop its first three AI agents: Operator, Deep Research, and Codex.

But getting AI systems to generate novel insights may be harder than making them agentic. The broader scientific community remains somewhat skeptical of AI’s ability to generate genuinely original insights.

Earlier this year, Hugging Face’s Chief Science Officer Thomas Wolf wrote an essay arguing that modern AI systems cannot ask great questions, which is key to any great scientific breakthrough. Kenneth Stanley, a former OpenAI research lead, also previously told TechCrunch that today’s AI models cannot generate novel hypotheses.

Stanley is now building out a team at Lila Sciences, a startup that raised $200 million to create an AI-powered laboratory specifically focused on getting AI models to come up with better hypotheses. This is a difficult problem, according to Stanley, because it involves giving AI models a sense for what is creative and interesting.

Whether OpenAI truly creates an AI model that is capable of producing novel insights remains to be seen. Still, Altman’s essay may feature something familiar — a preview of where OpenAI is likely headed next.

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