来源：雪球App，作者： Al2009，（https://xueqiu.com/6687467173/297148351）
根据公司最近公布的产能增长路线图，我们可以预见到的发展趋势如下：预计到2024年底，产能将达到5,000剂；到2025年底增至10,000剂 (4个生产站点，包括美国新泽西Raritan, 比利时两个，Obelisc, Tech Lane，和诺华）；而到2027年底，则将翻倍至20,000剂（包括新泽西厂房扩建，比利时美国厂房扩产和其他CMO）。到2025年底产量增长路径与CEO黄英在Jeffery会议上的陈述一致，而2027年产量根据下图纵坐标推算所得（公司中远期规划）。此外，鉴于2030年前不会在2线MM上批准具有类似治疗效果的细胞治疗产品，乐观预计在2025年的销售额将达到35亿美元，而到2028年销售额有望达到100亿美元。
附： CEO Huang Yin 6月6日在Jefferies 2024 Global Healthcare Conference上，关于产能的发言摘录
Yeah, you will see some increase there. And I think both Joaquin from J and J and we have said on our earnings call that we should expect sequential increase in the 2nd quarter, but we do expect much more significant growth rate from 3rd quarter and then 4th quarter because our plan is to roughly doubling our supply into the last year. And then again, we're planning to double our supply next year in the year of 2025 compared to the supply in 2024.
是的,您将会看到那里有一些增长。我认为强生公司的华金以及我们在我们的收益电话会议上都表示,我们应该预期第二季度会有连续性增长,但我们预计第三季度和第四季度的增长率将更加显著,因为我们的计划是在去年的基础上大致翻一倍的供应。而且我们正计划在 2025 年与 2024 年相比将供应量再次翻一倍。
Do you have a target to reach by the end of 2024 and 2025 in terms of how many doses?
你到 2024 年和 2025 年底有多少剂量的目标吗?
Yeah, we've always said since beginning of last year that we have laid out detailed plans and right now we're on track to achieve that plan target, which is we will exit 2025 with a combined supply of 10,000 doses per year or more. So that is our plan, and right now, as I said, we believe we're still on track to achieve that.
是的,自从去年初开始,我们一直表示我们制定了详细的计划,现在我们正在按计划进行,目标是在 2025 年完成年产 10,000 剂或更多的联合供应。这就是我们的计划,目前,正如我所说,我们相信我们仍然有望实现这一目标。
And to reach the goal in 2025, do you need additional manufacturing building house CDMO besides the sites in New Jersey, Europe and also Novartis as the CDMO?
要在 2025 年实现目标,您除了新泽西、欧洲和诺华的 CDMO 基地外,是否还需要额外的制造生产车间?
So in terms of our combined select, what really we mean here is that we'll continue to expand in our Raritan, New Jersey facility. That remains our main supply side. And then commercially speaking, in late 3Q or early 4Q, we expect our Phase 1 facility in Belgium called Obelisk to start commercial production. Right now, that study is already authorized to produce clinical trial material for Cardiology 6 right now. And then Novartis just filed IND last week, so we expect to hear from FDA within 30 days. And we believe Novartis will be cleared to start clinical production in July. And then probably early next year, as early as Q1 next year, Novartis should be authorized to start commercial supply. And then our much larger greenfield facility, the Phase 2 facility in Ghent called Techland should start clinical supply early next year, and then probably second half of next year should start also commercial production. So that's the internal three nodes plus Novartis. And as you can imagine, if there's additional supply in the market, we and J and J are interested in engaging further CDMO or building our own additional supply given the demand.
就我们综合选择而言,这里真正的意思是我们将继续在新泽西州的拉里坦扩张。这仍然是我们的主要供应端。从商业上讲,我们预计在第三季度末或第四季度初,我们在比利时叫做俄贝列斯克的第一期设施将开始商业生产。目前,这个研究已获批生产针对心脏病学 6 的临床试验用药物。诺华最近刚刚向美国 FDA 递交了 IND 申请,所以我们预计在 30 天内会获得批复。我们相信诺华将获准在 7 月开始临床生产。而我们位于根特的规模更大的全新设施 Techland 第二期设施,应该会在明年初开始提供临床用药供应,并可能在明年下半年开始商业生产。这就是我们自己的三个节点加上诺华。可以想象,如果市场上有更多的供应,我们和强生都有兴趣进一步参与 CDMO,或建立我们自己的额外供应,以满足需求。
