Since 1912, we’ve known that the Andromeda galaxy is racing towards our own Milky Way at about 110 kilometres per second. A century later, in 2012, astrophysicists at the Space Telescope Science Institute (STScI) in Maryland, US came to a striking conclusion. In four billion years, they predicted, a collision between the two galaxies was a sure thing.
Now, it’s not looking so sure.
Using the latest data from the European Space Agency’s Gaia astrometric mission, astrophysicists led by Till Sawala of the University of Helsinki, Finland re-modelled the impending crash, and found that it’s 50/50 as to whether a collision happens or not.
This new result differs from the 2012 one because it considers the gravitational effect of an additional galaxy, the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC), alongside the Milky Way, Andromeda and the nearby Triangulum spiral galaxy, M33. While M33’s gravity, in effect, adds to Andromeda’s motion towards us, Sawala and colleagues found that the LMC’s gravity tends to pull the Milky Way out of Andromeda’s path.
“We’re not predicting that the merger is not going to happen within 10 billion years, we’re just saying that from the data we have now, we can’t be certain of it,” Sawala tells Physics World.
“A step in the right direction”
While the LMC contains only around 10% of the Milky Way’s mass, Sawala and colleagues’ work indicates that it may nevertheless be massive enough to turn a head-on collision into a near-miss. Incorporating its gravitational effects into simulations is therefore “a step in the right direction”, says Sangmo Tony Sohn, a support scientist at the STScI and a co-author of the 2012 paper that predicted a collision.
Even with more detailed simulations, though, uncertainties in the motion and masses of the galaxies leave room for a range of possible outcomes. According to Sawala, the uncertainty with the greatest effect on merger probability lies in the so-called “proper motion” of Andromeda, which is its motion as it appears on our night sky. This motion is a mixture of Andomeda’s radial motion towards the centre of the Milky Way and the two galaxies’ transverse motion perpendicular to one another.
If the combined transverse motion is large enough, Andromeda will pass the Milky Way at a distance greater than 200 kiloparsecs (652,000 light years). This would avert a collision in the next 10 billion years, because even when the two galaxies loop back on each other, their next pass would still be too distant, according to the models.
Conversely, a smaller transverse motion would limit the distance at closest approach to less than 200 kiloparsecs. If that happens, Sawala says the two galaxies are “almost certain to merge” because of the dynamical friction effect, which arises from the diffuse halo of old stars and dark matter around galaxies. When two galaxies get close enough, these haloes begin interacting with each other, generating tidal and frictional heating that robs the galaxies of orbital energy and makes them fall ever closer.
The LMC itself is an excellent example of how this works. “The LMC is already so close to the Milky Way that it is losing its orbital energy, and unlike [Andromeda], it is guaranteed to merge with the Milky Way,” Sawala says, adding that, similarly, M33 stands a good chance of merging with Andromeda.
“A very delicate task”
Because Andromeda is 2.5 million light years away, its proper motion is very hard to measure. Indeed, no-one had ever done it until the STScI team spent 10 years monitoring the galaxy, which is also known as M31, with the Hubble Space Telescope – something Sohn describes as “a very delicate task” that continues to this day.
Another area where there is some ambiguity is in the mass estimate of the LMC. “If the LMC is a little more massive [than we think], then it pulls the Milky Way off the collision course with M31 a little more strongly, reducing the possibility of a merger between the Milky Way and M31,” Sawala explains.
The good news is that these ambiguities won’t be around forever. Sohn and his team are currently analysing new Hubble data to provide fresh constraints on the Milky Way’s orbital trajectory, and he says their results have been consistent with the Gaia analyses so far. Sawala agrees that new data will help reduce uncertainties. “There’s a good chance that we’ll know more about what is going to happen fairly soon, within five years,” he says.
Even if the Milky Way and Andromeda don’t collide in the next 10 billion years, though, that won’t be the end of the story. “I would expect that there is a very high probability that they will eventually merge, but that could take tens of billions of years,” Sawala says.
The research is published in Nature Astronomy.
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