It’s remarkable how much the solar landscape has transformed in just 5 years. What was once a PERC-dominated world has now evolved into a dynamic ecosystem led by TOPCon, with HJT and back-contact (BC) technologies also in the fray, backed with multi-GW scale capacities. And it’s not just about new cell architectures – each of these technologies is advancing at a steady clip. Meanwhile, the module side – often seen as conservative – is also increasingly becoming innovative. We are now seeing application-specific designs and tailored bills of materials (BOM), with almost every conventional component facing an alternative. Innovative interconnection processes are also helping to debottleneck cell-level limitations – for example, reducing silver usage. Behind the scenes, manufacturing processes and production equipment are being continuously refined to keep pace with these shifts.
The TaiyangNews Cell & Module Technology Trends 2025 report outlines key advancements in TOPCon and HJT while also examining emerging developments in proprietary BC technologies. It offers a concise overview of the core trends shaping next-generation high-efficiency solar.
Market Shares of Different Technologies
Before going into the details, here is a quick peek into the market shares of PV technologies. The graph below summarizes the market share estimates for different solar cell technologies as projected by ITRPV, CPIA, and research firm Exawatt. It is well known that TOPCon is the workhorse of the industry, and all sources unanimously agree that TOPCon will dominate the cell technology landscape. In 2025, CPIA and Exawatt forecast TOPCon to capture around 80% of the market share, while ITRPV estimates it slightly lower at close to 70%. This leadership is expected to persist through the decade, according to both CPIA and Exawatt, before gradually declining to 60% (CPIA) and 54%. ITRPV estimates the technology to peak in 2029, but still at around 70% and then decline to 42% by 2035.
HJT is steadily gaining traction, with all 3 sources forecasting a gradual rise. In 2025, its estimated share ranges from 4% according to Exawatt to 8% according to ITRPV. The technology is seen growing slowly but surely, reaching 10% by 2028 in Exawatt’s view, and 20% by 2030 according to CPIA. ITRPV, in contrast, projects higher initial market capture – 10% already in 2027, but more conservative growth thereafter, peaking at 14% in the next 5 years and slightly declining to 12% by 2035.
Although it sounds counterintuitive, the technology envisioned to take the second spot in market share is XBC, not HJT. The outlook for XBC (back-contact technologies), including TBC (TOPCon-based) and HBC (HJT-based), is more dynamic. Starting from an 8% to 10% share in 2025, all sources agree on an upward trajectory for this technology. Exawatt is especially bullish, projecting a dramatic rise to 35% by 2029. On the other hand, ITRPV is the most conservative in estimating the technology to reach a little short of this level in the next 10 years. CPIA’s projection is also on the conservative side, but still signals growth, reaching close to 20% by 2030.
Tandem technologies, such as silicon-perovskite stacks, are expected to remain niche in the near term, with negligible market presence before 2027. This technology is expected to first be detectable on the technology radar in 2029, according to both ITRPV and Exawatt, with a share of about 3%. In contrast, CPIA maintains a cautious outlook with just 1% in 2030.
This text is an excerpt from the TaiyangNews Cell & Module Technology Trends 2025 report, which can be downloaded for free here.
