两位作者就AI市场是否会在2026年底前崩盘进行了一场有趣的对赌。Remmelt认为AI公司在数据中心上消耗过多现金，产品面临商品化，崩盘可能性较高，但他将赌注视为一种对冲，如果市场崩盘，他会将奖金捐赠给相关组织。Marcus则认为AI产品已找到市场契合点，将持续改进，用户会继续付费，因此不太可能发生大规模崩盘。他们各自对赌局的概率评估差异显著，Remmelt认为有25%的胜算，而Marcus认为仅有4%。

📉 赌约的核心在于对AI市场崩盘的定义，具体是指OpenAI、Anthropic的年收入低于特定数值，以及Nvidia的数据中心收入低于特定标准。三个条件满足至少两个，则判定为市场崩盘。

💰 赌注的具体内容是：如果到2026年底AI市场没有崩盘，Remmelt支付Marcus 5000美元；如果崩盘，Marcus支付Remmelt 25000美元。赔率为5000:25000，隐含概率为16.67%。

🤝 Remmelt和Marcus进行这场对赌的原因在于，他们都认为AI的发展速度会比较缓慢，不会像“2027年实现AGI”的预测那样迅速。但Marcus认为AI产品已经找到了市场，而Remmelt则认为AI公司烧钱太厉害，市场最终会崩盘。

🎁 Remmelt计划将赢得的赌金捐赠给相关组织，以帮助他们抵抗衰弱的AI公司。Marcus则将这场赌局视为一次市场交易和预测，希望从中获利，并可能捐赠奖金。

Published on May 8, 2025 9:56 AM GMT

We made a bet on the AI market crashing by the end of 2026. 

The odds are $5k:$25k with an implied probability of 16.67%. If there is no crash, Remmelt pays Marcus $5,000. If there is a crash, Marcus pays Remmelt $25,000.

An AI market crash will be defined, for the purposes of this bet, as at least 2 out of 3 of the following criteria being met.

Here are our criteria:

OpenAI's 2025 or 2026 annual revenue is below $1.6 billion.Anthropic's 2025 or 2026 annual revenue is below $400 million.Nvidia’s data center revenue in any quarter from now to Q4 2026 is below $8.5 billion.^[1]

It’s hard to come up with criteria for what constitutes an AI market crash, as many operationalizations face confounding factors that don’t constitute a crash. These criteria were chosen since these are three of the most prominent AI-related companies and have public and verifiable revenue reporting. 

Remmelt thinks that there is roughly a quarter chance of winning the bet.
Marcus thinks there is a ~4% chance of Remmelt winning the bet, mostly losing due to idiosyncrasies like one of these companies collapsing due to fraud or internal turmoil.
 

Why are we doing this bet?

We both think that AI developments will be more gradual than “AGI 2027” purports.

So what’s the difference in our views?  

Marcus thinks there won’t be a large crash because AI products have found product market fit, will continue to improve gradually over the next couple of years, and users will continue to pay for AI products. He holds a wide probability space for how the next couple of years will play out, with a small possibility of large changes or a winter, but the bulk of the probability mass is on “staying the course” with gradual improvements and new releases over the next 1.5 years. 

Remmelt thinks there will likely be a crash by 2029, since AI companies are burning too much cash on data centers to run products undergoing commodification. He thinks it’s most plausible though that the crash happens on the investment side, and that model subscription revenues could end up being mostly maintained.

Remmelt is treating this bet as a hedge – if the market crashes, he intends to give winnings to an exceptional movement builder to organise communities to resist weakened AI companies.

Marcus is approaching this bet as an experienced market trader and forecaster, looking to profit and likely donate winnings.

1. ^{^}

   This covers Nvidia revenue items currently under the ‘Data Center’ category, even if renamed or moved to another category.

Discuss