What does the word “overselling” mean to you? At one level, it can just mean selling more of something than already exists or can be delivered. It’s what happens when airlines overbook flights by selling more seats than physically exist on their planes. They assume a small fraction of passengers won’t turn up, which is fine – until you can’t fly because everyone else has rocked up ahead of you.
Overselling can also involve selling more of something than is strictly required. Also known as “upselling”, you might have experienced it when buying a car or taking out a new broadband contract. You end up paying for extras and add-ons that were offered but you didn’t really need or even want, which explains why you’ve got all those useless WiFi boosters lying around the house.
There’s also a third meaning of “overselling”, which is to exaggerate the merits of something. You see it when a pharmaceutical company claims its amazing anti-ageing product “will make you live 20 years longer”, which it won’t. Overselling in this instance means overstating a product’s capability or functionality. It’s pretending something is more mature than it is, or claiming a technology is real when it’s still at proof-of-concept-stage.
From my experience in science and technology, this form of overselling often happens when companies and their staff want to grab attention or to keep customers or consumers on board. Sometimes firms do it because they are genuinely enthusiastic (possibly too much so) about the future possibilities of their product. I’m not saying overselling is necessarily a bad thing but just that there are reservations.
Fact and fiction
Before I go any further, let’s learn the lingo of overselling. First off, there’s “vapourware”, which refers to a product that either doesn’t exist or doesn’t fulfil the stated technical capability. Often, it’s something a firm wants to include in its product portfolio because they’re sure people would like to own it. Deep down, though, the company knows the product simply isn’t possible, at least not right now. Like a vapour, it’s there but can’t be touched.
Sometimes vapourware is just a case of waiting for product development to catch up with a genuine product plan. Sales staff know they haven’t got the product at the right specification yet, and while the firm will definitely get there one day, they’re pretending the hurdles have already been crossed. But genuine over-enthusiasm can sometimes cross over into wishful thinking – the idea that a certain functionality can be achieved with an existing technical approach.
Do you remember Google Glass? This was wearable tech, integrated into spectacle frames, that was going to become the ubiquitous portable computer. Information would be requested via voice commands, with the user receiving back the results, visible on a small heads-up display. Whilst the computing technology worked, the product didn’t succeed. Not only did it look clunky, there were also deployment constraints and concerns about privacy and safety.
Google Glass simply didn’t capture the public’s imagination or meet the needs of enough consumers.
Google Glass failed on multiple levels and was discontinued in 2015, barely a year after it hit the market. Subsequent relaunches didn’t succeed either and the product was pulled for a final time in 2023. Despite Google’s best efforts, the product simply didn’t capture the public’s imagination or meet the needs of enough consumers.
Next up in our dictionary of vapourware is “unobtanium”, which is a material or material specification that we would like to exist, but simply doesn’t. In the aerospace sector, where I work, we often dream of unobtanium. We’re always looking for materials that can repeatedly withstand the operational extremes encountered during a flight, whilst also being sustainable without cutting corners on safety.
Like other engine manufacturers, my company – GE Aerospace – is pioneering multiple approaches to help develop such materials. We know that engines become more efficient when they burn at higher temperatures and pressures. We also know that nitrous-oxide (NOx) emissions fall when an engine burns more leanly. Unfortunately, there are no metals we know of that can survive to such high temperatures.
But the quest for unobtainium can drive innovative technical solutions. At GE, for example, we’re making progress by looking instead at composite materials, such as carbon fibre and composite matrix ceramics. Stronger and more tolerant to heat and pressure than metals, they’ve already been included on the turbofan engines in planes such as the Boeing 787 Dreamliner.
We’re also using “additive manufacturing” to build components layer by layer. This approach lets us make highly intricate components with far less waste than conventional techniques, in which a block of material is machined away. We’re also developing innovative lean-burn combustion technologies, such as novel cooling and flow strategies, to reduce NOx emissions.
While unobtainium can never be reached, it’s worth trying to get there to drive technology forward.
A further example is the single crystal turbine blade developed by Rolls-Royce in 2012. Each blade is cast to form a single crystal of super alloy, making it extremely strong and able to resist the intense heat inside a jet engine. According to the company, the single crystal turbine blades operate up to 200 degrees above the melting point of their alloy. So while unobtainium can never be reached, it’s worth trying to get there to drive technology forward.
Lead us not into temptation
Now, here’s the caveat. There’s an unwelcome side to overselling, which is that it can easily morph into downright mis-selling. This was amply demonstrated by the Volkswagen diesel emissions scandal, which saw the German carmaker install “defeat devices” in its diesel engines. The software changed how the engine performed when it was undergoing emissions tests to make its NOx emissions levels appear much lower than they really were.
VW was essentially falsifying its diesel engine emissions to conform with international standards. After regulators worldwide began investigating the company, VW took a huge reputational and financial hit, ultimately costing it more than $33bn in fines, penalties and financial settlements. Senior chiefs at the company got the sack and the company’s reputation took a serious hit.
It’s tempting – and sometimes even fun – to oversell. Stretching the truth draws interest from customers and consumers. But when your product no longer does “what it says on the tin”, your brand can suffer, probably more so than having something slightly less functional.
On the upside, the quest for unobtanium and, to some extent, the selling of vapourware can drive technical progress and lead to better technical solutions. I suspect this was the case for Google Glass. The underlying technology has had some success in certain niche applications such as medical surgery and manufacturing. So even though Google Glass didn’t succeed, it did create a gap for other vendors to fill.
Google Glass was essentially a portable technology with similar functionality to smartphones, such as wireless Internet access and GPS connectivity. Customers, however, proved to be happier carrying this kind of technology in their hands than wearing it on their heads. The smartphone took off; Google Glass didn’t. But the underlying tech – touchpads, cameras, displays, processors and so on – got diverted into other products.
Vapourware, in other words, can give a firm a competitive edge while it waits for its product to mature. Who knows, maybe one day even Google Glass will make a comeback?
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