AI Futures Project团队推出了AI 2027项目，并在博客上发布了一系列文章，涵盖了AI发展的时间线预测、媒体反应、以及美国在AI领域保持领先的原因分析。作者本人也参与了博客的撰写，并对其中关于AI时间线的预测文章感到满意，因为OpenAI的最新模型似乎支持了他们更快的增长曲线预测。此外，AI Futures Project团队将于本周五在ACX上进行AMA活动，解答关于AI预测和AI安全等问题。

📈AI Futures Project团队推出了AI 2027项目，旨在对未来AI发展进行预测和研究，该项目在博客上发布了一系列文章。

📰博客文章涵盖了多个主题，包括AI发展的时间线预测（如《Beyond The Last Horizon》），对AI 2027的媒体反应和批评（《AI 2027: Media, Reactions, Criticism》），以及美国在AI领域保持领先的原因分析（《Why America Wins》）。

🤝AI Futures Project团队将于本周五在ACX上举行AMA（Ask Me Anything）活动，届时团队专家将亲自解答社区成员关于AI预测、AI安全等方面的疑问。

AI Futures Project is the group behind AI 2027. I’ve been helping them with their blog. Posts written or co-written by me include:

Beyond The Last Horizon - what’s behind that METR result showing that AI time horizons double every seven months? And is it really every seven months? Might it be faster?

AI 2027: Media, Reactions, Criticism - a look at some of the response to AI 2027, with links to some of the best objections and the team’s responses.

Why America Wins - why we predict that America will stay ahead of China on AI in the near future, and what could change this.

I will probably be shifting most of my AI blogging there for a while to take advantage of access to the team’s expertise. There’s also a post on transparency by Daniel Kokotajlo, and we hope to eventually host writing by other team members as well.

I’m especially happy with the horizons post, because we got it out just a few days before a new result that seems to support one of our predictions: OpenAI’s newest models’ time horizons seem to be on the faster curve we predicted, rather than the slower seven-month doubling time highlighted in the METR report:

And speaking of expertise, the AIFP team have kindly volunteered to do an AMA (“ask me anything”, Q&A) here on ACX, this Friday, 3:30 - 6:00 PM California time. If you have any questions on the scenario, AI forecasting, or AI safety more generally, they can give you high-quality answers. I’ll make a separate post at the appointed time.