在Hidden Forces的第410集中，Demetri Kofinas与投资者Paulo Macro和Le Shrub探讨了国际资本和贸易体系崩溃的后果及其对市场和投资者投资组合的影响。节目首先回顾了去年关于“EM-ification”的讨论，即基于规则的全球秩序的瓦解，以及在财政状况恶化的世界中对新安全资产的迫切需求。随后，Demetri、Paulo和Le Shrub共同探讨了投资者在未来一年应该关注的问题。节目还深入探讨了全面贸易和资本战争的潜在影响，包括对美国资产、通货膨胀、与中国的潜在脱钩甚至冲突，以及美国政府在经济放缓和借款成本居高不下的情况下放弃财政紧缩的风险。

🌍 节目探讨了国际资本和贸易体系崩溃的潜在后果，包括对市场和投资者投资组合的影响，并回顾了去年关于“EM-ification”的讨论，即基于规则的全球秩序的瓦解。

🔍 节目深入分析了投资者在未来一年应该关注的关键问题，为投资者提供了前瞻性的视角，帮助他们更好地应对市场变化。

💸 节目探讨了全面贸易和资本战争的潜在影响，包括对美国资产（尤其是美国国债和美元）的影响，以及在盈余国家将其资本流向从美国转移时可能出现的状况。

💥 节目还讨论了由战略性军备和产业政策推动的通货膨胀复燃的风险，以及与中国潜在的脱钩甚至冲突的可能性。

📉 此外，节目还探讨了在美国经济放缓和借款成本居高不下的情况下，放弃财政紧缩的风险，以及因美元大幅重新估值而引发大规模财富损失的风险。

In Episode 410 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with investors Paulo Macro and Le Shrub about the consequences of a breakdown in the international capital and trading system—and what this means for markets and investor portfolios.

The first hour revisits last year’s discussion on “EM-ification,” the breakdown of the rules-based global order, and the urgent search for a new safe asset in a world of deteriorating fiscal balance sheets. Together, Demetri, Paulo, and Le Shrub map out what investors should be paying attention to in the year ahead.

In the second hour, the conversation turns to the implications of a full-blown trade and capital war, including:

• The impact on U.S. assets—especially Treasuries and the dollar—if surplus nations redirect their capital flows away from the United States

• Resurgent inflation fueled by strategic rearmament and industrial policy

• A potential decoupling from—and even a hot war with—China

• The abandonment of fiscal restraint in the face of an economic slowdown amid persistently high or rising borrowing costs for the U.S. government

• The risk of massive wealth destruction triggered by a dramatic revaluation of the U.S. dollar

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Episode Recorded on 04/15/2025