原创 180k 2025-02-28 19:16 福建
今天中美一起大跌，从我们本土这边聊起；
交易台A股反馈
今日香港/中国股市走低，或将创下自本轮反弹（1月中旬）以来最大单日抛售。直接的触发因素似乎是特朗普宣布对中国加征10%关税的消息，这一时机令投资者感到意外。在最初10%的关税之后，市场普遍反馈认为特朗普的态度会更为温和，并认为在4月1日之前风险较小——但昨晚的新闻似乎再次改变了预期。（180K：大家都知道关税会来，只是不知道的现在来而已）
HK/China taking a leg lower today, on track to the largest single day selling since the beginning of this rally (mid-Jan), it feels a direct trigger is the 10% additional tariff headline from Trump on China, which surprised investors on timing. After the 10% initial tariff, a consensus of feedback see a more gentle gesture of the Trump, and agree there is less risk before Apr 1st - but the headline from last night seem re-shaping the expectation again.
从资金流向来看，并未出现系统性的减仓或恐慌性抛售，更多是由手松的投资者所主导。（180K：这里原文用的是tourist invesotrs) A股市场并未出现明显的恐慌性抛售，因为相较于H股，A股本身的买盘较少。今日我们仅比本周日均交易量高出15%，卖出量仅为1.2倍。（180K：今天2月底rebalancing，应该也有一定的影响）
Flow wise, not a systematic de-grossing or panic selling but more led by tourist investors' loosening hands. A-share certainly not see too much panic selling as there was less buying vs. H-share in nature. We are only 1.2x better Seller today with notional +15% vs. ADTV this week.
我们看到明显的从成长股向价值股的轮动——科技股（半导体、软件、硬件和媒体）被抛售最多，而资金则流入家电、食品饮料和银行等防御性板块。这进一步表明，外国投资者仍在市场中，但在不利消息的影响下，他们正试图寻找避风港。
We see a clear rotation from Growth to Value - Tech (Semi, Software, Hardware and Media) got sold most, while rotating into Appliance, F&B and Banks (all the defensive names). This further imply, foreign players are still in the game but trying to find a hub to hide first in light of unfavored headlines.
值得强调的是：1）在对冲基金中，今日最活跃的玩家是进行板块轮动的基金，而长线投资者则暂停买入以放缓节奏；2）A股科技股的获利了结自本周初就已开始，但今日的获利了结规模实际上较本周初有所缩小；3）机器人产业链今日也出现抛售(180K: 我混迹的几个群里看到有群友说，今天看到机器人三个字有点不适...)，但对冲基金中仍有逢低买入者，使得资金流向相较于科技股更为平衡。
Worth of highlighting, 1) HFs being the most active players today in terms of rotation, and LOs paused buying to ease the pace; 2) The profit taking of A-share Tech names have been ongoing since early this week, today we actually see profit taking flows in less scale vs. early of the week; 3) The Robotics chain also saw sellers today, but there is still dip buyer from HF community making the skew more balanced vs. tech
关于南下资金
关于南下资金；投资者构成+ 机构与散户的占比。虽然难以获取关于南下资金投资者类型的透明且细致的数据，但我们可以通过内地共同基金的申报文件以及南下资金流动的（不断变化的）性质，对其参与者结构形成一个总体看法；（180K：南下资金+定价权这两天很多人在聊；）
On Southbound...Investors behind...% of institutions & retails. Transparent and granular data-points on Southbound investor types are difficult to come by, but we can form a general view on the participant mix via onshore mutual fund filings and the (evolving) nature of the Southbound flows,
一些分析后，可以看到下面图表揭示了港股通的持股数据，显示其占南下资金可投资市值的10.8%，这意味着公募占南下资金持股的20%-30%，其余为其他机构（养老金、私募、企业等）和散户。
The chart on the RHS from our research team sheds lights on the Southbound ownership data which point to 10.8% as of total SB eligible stocks market cap, implying Mutual Funds take 20%-30% of the SB ownership, with rest being other institutions (Pensions, Private funds, Corporates, etc.) and retails.
交易台美股反馈
我先给一些总结；
散户似乎快没钱了；如果散户不逢低买入，动量股将继续抛售；
对冲基金的净杠杆率仍然较高；市场对美国股票的敞口仍然过大。
不确定性：一大堆新闻标题困扰着投资者(DOGE + 关税 + 俄乌)，并对风险资产构成阻力；连bitco1n都到了80000以下；
美银
1/资金流动似乎已经枯竭。在美国银行的交易平台上，通常逢低买入、逢高卖出的散户交易者在2月的下跌日中净买入的规模仅为1月的十分之一；这显示出逐月的支持力度大幅减弱。
2/ 另一方面，LO在过去8个交易日中有7天净卖出……而且这种卖出是广泛的，即11个板块中有9个出现净卖出，只有必需消费品和房地产板块成为防御性资金的净买入绿洲。对冲基金的资金流动则基本持平。
3/关于英伟达；该股今日下跌了8.5%，尽管其财报表现超出预期并上调了指引。在约700个TMT彭博聊天室中，几乎没有买方分析师为其“辩护”。讨论更多集中在……挑刺上；具体来说，不满集中在以下几点：1）超出预期的幅度，仅为+10亿美元，低于历史性的+20亿美元超预期水平……2）令人失望的利润率指引，第一季度仅为71%，虽然符合买方预期，但低于市场预期的72%左右……3）AI网络业务表现较弱，暗示可能输给博通，以及……4）对中国限制措施的持续升级。
看涨的理由众所周知，因为最近的数据点表现强劲 + 戴尔的AI订单积压超预期 + 美光关于存储器的评论非常积极 + 台积电的AI产能已经满负荷运转 + 超大规模企业将2025年的资本支出上调了30%以上！+ 此外，Blackwell的发布表现极为强劲（110亿美元收入，而预期为70亿美元）+ 甚至2025年下半年利润率也可能出现拐点 + 股价处于极低的22倍市盈率 + 但…今天没有人真的想听这些。
尽管如此，目前也没有强烈做空的动力。他们的GTC大会将于3月17日举行，距离现在还有三周。这很可能成为CEO黄仁勋阐述下一阶段看涨理由的公开舞台，例如解释推理/训练后应用场景、灵活性优势（相对于定制ASIC解决方案），并提供资本支出需求和未来物理AI/机器人机会的可见性。我们拭目以待。
高盛
LOs净卖出40亿美元，主要受科技和医疗保健板块的宏观情绪驱动，而对冲基金（HFs）则保持平衡。对冲基金在医疗保健和必需消费品板块净卖出，而在科技和通信服务板块净买入。
想象一下，所有人都在期待反弹，但由于潜在的关税威胁（疯狂的头条新闻轮盘）、持仓状况和技术面，市场动态并不完全符合传统的“老套路”（动量股指数GSCBHMOM今日又下跌了4%）。
话虽如此，我们尚未看到任何表明投资者认输的投降式资金流动，这在散户群体中尤为明显，因此我们可能比表面看起来更接近底部。既然英伟达（NVDA）和大部分财报季已经过去，焦点又回到了数据上。明天的PCE数据值得关注。
JPM
近期动量股和热门股的下跌引发了许多关于“我们处于哪个阶段？”的疑问。在我们看来，答案仍然难以确定……
从动量股的表现来看，似乎我们已经接近尾声，因为跌幅超过9%，而过去五年的典型跌幅为10-17%（基于JPMPURE指数）。
但是如果是对冲基金的总资金流动和持仓情况，似乎我们才刚刚开始。虽然在某些领域出现了减仓，但整体上并未达到过去的规模。上周晚些时候，对冲基金在美国卖出了一些动量股，但本周并未持续……他们甚至在昨天的反弹中买入了一些“mag7”。
话虽如此，在某些领域，减仓/去风险化的迹象似乎更具意义。自1月下旬（始于DeepSeek新闻）以来，科技、媒体和电信（TMT）板块的对冲基金一直在减仓，而近期TMT动量股和拥挤度的下跌使得20天风险因子处于低位，这可能预示着反弹即将到来。
美银 - 迪拜 + 伦敦的客户反馈
我很少聊宏观，因为我不擅长；最近市场上出现了很多质疑“美国例外主义”的声音，尤其是中国和欧洲的部分板块走强的时候，声音更加洪亮。
今天美银的flow show出来了，里面有一节和机构客户的对话很有意思的；“美国例外主义”的退去，似乎是声势浩大，仓位调整不大（嘴上吵吵 vs 身体诚实）；这么多年的“美国例外主义”之下，让大家对于欧洲+中国都是带有“保留”地去做多（许多人仍然是结构性做空）；下面是一些节选。
有意思的是，美银策略师Winnie Wu: “I think to a level this is a healthy correction. There is some profit taking“
而flow show里面的第一句就是：
美银flow show
投资者似乎对标准普尔500指数持怀疑态度（suspicious)，认为欧洲是"租赁(rent)"而非"拥有(own)"资产，担心中国消费回暖可能推动中国股市反弹扩大，同时认为债券吸引力很高（新型的"别与马斯克对赌"交易），但......
Investors seem suspicious of the S&P 500, believing that Europe is a “rent” not an “own,” concerned that a stronger China consumer could cause the China rally to broaden, and as attracted to long bonds as they have been this decade (the new “don’t bet against Elon” trade), but……
...市场叙事和情绪转变速度远超仓位调整...投资者既未做空风险资产，也未做多债券和国际股票...a. 美银2月全球基金经理调查显示现金水平3.5%（2010年以来最低），显示投资者风险偏好强烈但缺乏"逢低买入"弹药；b. 极少投资者承认持有久期资产，普遍偏好信用债而非国债；c.通过欧洲银行股和中概科技股的空头仓位虽被削减，但资产配置者仍结构性看空，无人做多（注：自2022年2月俄乌冲突以来欧洲股市每流出100美元，过去三周仅回流3美元）。
…the narratives and moods shifting way quicker than positions…investors are not short risk, nor long bonds & international stocks…a. 3.5% cash levels in BofA Feb Global FMS (lowest since 2010) shows investors positioned risk-on with limited “buy-the-dip” ammo, b. few investors admitting to an ounce of duration in their portfolios, and all prefer credit to government bonds, c. short positions in China & Europe stocks have been cut via European banks & Chinese tech but asset allocators remain structurally short, no one long (note for every 100 of outflows from European stocks since the Feb’22 start of Ukraine/NATO/Russia war, just 3 of inflows in past 3 weeks have returned to Europe).
我们说：政府信任危机=黄金牛市，2024年1月以来全球33场选举中有27场现任政党落败，英国（57%）、德国（49%）、法国（36%）主流政党得票率创百年新低，正如胡佛所言"持有黄金因不信任政府"。
We said: big bear market in government trust = big bull market in gold, incumbents voted out of office in 27 out of 33 global elections since Jan'24, mainstream political parties at lowest share of vote since 1918 in UK (57%), 1928 in Germany (49%), 1945 in France (36% - Chart 11), and as Herbert Hoover said, “we have gold because we cannot trust governments.”
客户说：无所谓（whatever)。
我们说：做多美债...a. 特朗普不会大规模加税以免引发二次通胀；b. 政府支出（过去五年增长65%）已成为名义GDP增长（同期增长50%）主要驱动力；c. 政府及准政府部门贡献美国就业增长的70%（一年前为85%）；d. 随着"财政救助"信心消退，美国穷人储蓄率上升，富人财富效应消退（测算显示美国家庭股票财富Q1将增加600亿vs 24Q3的3800亿）。
We said: buy US long bonds…a. Trump won’t go big tariffs as political malpractice to allow 2nd wave of inflation, b. DOGE = 7tn US Government set to contract and “G” (up 65% past 5 years) has been huge driver of nominal GDP growth (up 50% over same period), c. DOGE = weak payrolls (government + quasi-govt education/healthcurrently accounting for 70% of US payroll growth (was 85% a year ago – Chart 3), d. DOGE = higher US savings rate for “poor” as conviction in “fiscal bailouts” ends, and wealth effect for “rich” fading quickly (we calculate via BofA private client equity holdings that US household equity wealth on course for 0.6tn gain in Q1 vs 3.8tn in 3Q’24 & 1.6tn in 4Q'24 – Chart 4).
客户说：美债可对冲标普，但需我们需要在经济衰退才配债，且trump的减税恐加剧赤字。
You said: yeah, and long bond decent hedge against S&P 500, but we need a recession to own bonds, Trump policies likely reverse before recession, and tax cuts in H2 mean deficit will get worse.
我们说：deepseek = 美国例外主义见顶...a.AI资本回报率下降，预计2025年AI超算占美国资本支出20%（3200亿）；b.生产率提升2026年才显现，当前裁员潮先行（标普500人均收入实际仅增1%）；c. 美科技股估值过高，1.6万亿"美股七巨头"或向1万亿"中国BATX"轮动。
We said: DeepSeek = deep peak in US exceptionalism as a. return on investment (RoI) of AI capex falls, and consensus forecasts AI hyperscalers to account for 20% (320bn) of US capex (1.6tn) in 2025, up from 10% just 2 years ago, b. productivity coming in 2026 but not happening now (S&P 500 revenue per employee up just 1% in real terms – Chart 5), and job cuts come first, c. US tech exceptionally well-owned and priced relative to China tech…big rotation from 16tn of US Magnificent 7 market cap to 1tn of China BATX (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi – Chart 10) market cap.
客户说：关注中概但担忧超买（图表9），多数认为A股反弹难扩散（我们指需待零售回暖）。
You said: “we’re on it” but concerned China tech overbought (Chart 9), and most remain convinced Chinese stock market rally won’t broaden out from tech (we say that changes when China retail sales accelerate).
我们说：欧洲走强缘于外部因素（特朗普、中美、俄乌、中东），制造业复苏/服务业回落利好欧盟，政治动荡倒逼财政刺激；结构性改革（银行整合、欧元债、德拉吉改革）配合强欧元将推动欧洲从"租赁"转向"拥有"。
We said: Europe winning but not for European reasons…Trump, China, Russia-Ukraine ending, Middle East more stable; that said global move up-in-manufacturing/down-in-services (Chart 6) good tailwind for further EU outperformance, and European political panic means deeper cyclical fiscal stimulus; structurally we think bank sector consolidation, a Euro bond, Draghi reforms, and a period of stronger Euro and strong stocks is the secret sauce for Europe to shift from “rent” to “own.”
客户说：看好欧银但谨慎财政，毕竟"这是欧洲"。
You said: agreed, and we love the European banks, but we’re less bullish on the fiscal stuff, and well, you know, it’s Europe.
客户问：若美债/美元双顶后现美股双顶（经济放缓），trump会做什么政策反应？
You said: we really want to understand the Trump policy reaction should the twin-peak in US yields, and the twin-peak in US dollar, be followed by a twin-peak in US stocks because US growth really starts to falter in coming months…
我们推演政策选项（按概率排序）：a. 美联储降息（做多美债黄金）；b. 沙特协议压油价（做多国际股）；c. 国会加速减税/提债务上限（利空债券）；d. 中美贸易协议风声（最大利好）；e. 特朗普加税（最大利空）；f. 支出缩减（概率最低因需共和党妥协）。
We said: here are potential policy reactions ranked by the likelihood; a. Fed cuts (why we long bonds & gold), b. Riyadh Accord to cut oil prices (why we long International), c. Congress fast-tracks tax cuts/raising of debt ceiling (which would be bond negative), d. US starts making noises that US-China trade deal coming (most bullish outcome for risk), e. Trump responds negatively via rise in tariffs (most bearish outcome for risk), f. DOGE stops (least likely as US Republican “freedom caucus,” most important voting bloc is Congress, needs big spending cuts to sign-off on tax cuts).
有兴趣关注的话可以点下面；差不多每天更新（因为公众号是乱序推送，需要及时收到的朋友可以星标公众号，）
