Hidden Forces 播客第408期邀请了Citrini Research创始人James van Geelen，探讨塑造未来社会、经济和市场回报的“megatrends”。讨论了包括特朗普关税在内的市场主题，以及全球经济、供应链、能源系统和技术基础的重组，以及政府和财政政策与经济和资产市场的关系。节目深入分析了财富驱动的白领衰退、美国股市的轮动以及新经济下对美国民主党支持者的影响。

💡James van Geelen与Demetri Kofinas讨论了影响投资的关键主题，包括特朗普的关税政策，这些政策对未来几年的投资者回报具有决定性影响。

🌍他们探讨了全球经济的根本性重组及其对供应链、能源系统和技术基础的影响，以及政府和财政政策与经济和资产市场的关系。

💼文章还提到了财富驱动的白领衰退，这可能会加速人工智能的采用并迅速重塑劳动力市场。

💰此外，讨论还涉及美国股市的轮动，以及如果支持者失业，美国民主党的基本盘可能面临的风险。

In Episode 408 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with James van Geelen, the founder of Citrini Research, which specializes in illuminating and demystifying the transformative “megatrends” poised to shape societies, economies, and the market’s distribution of returns for years to come.

James and Demetri spend the first hour of their conversation exploring a series of narratives and investment themes—including Trump’s recent tariff announcement—that have captivated markets and that are likely to be highly determinative of investor returns in the years to come. They discuss the investment implications of a fundamental reorganization of the global economy, along with its supply chains, energy systems, and underlying technological foundations, to say nothing about the changing relationship of government and fiscal policy to the economy and asset markets.

In the second hour, Citrini and Kofinas dig deeper into some of the more consequential themes that they identify in the first hour, including:

1. The wealth-driven white-collar recession that could accelerate the adoption of AI and rapidly reshape the workforce.

2. The rotation out of U.S. equities as America turns to fiscal austerity and as countries in Europe and Asia engage in massive fiscal stimulus.

3. The implications for America’s Democratic party base if its supporters increasingly find themselves out of work and under threat by the policies and changes underway in the new economy.

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Episode Recorded on 04/03/2025