China’s solar PV module export volumes for the months of January and February 2025 were significantly weaker than last year, according to InfoLink Consulting. The country exported about 38.52 GW of solar modules during 2M 2025, an 11% decline year-on-year (YoY) from 43.11 GW in 2M 2024.
Further bifurcation shows a 2% annual growth in January 2025 shipments, at about 22.26 GW. In February, the volume declined by 23% YoY to 16.26 GW.
InfoLink analysts believe that this hints at Chinese companies prioritizing domestic market demand as China brings in market-oriented pricing changes from June 1, 2025. Modules are being directed toward fulfilling the installation rush expected till May this year.
Chinese solar manufacturers reduced overseas supply as the local market share of leading companies reached 40-45% for Q1 2025, they add.
India, the Netherlands, Pakistan, Brazil and Portugal, as the top 5 destinations for Chinese solar modules during the reporting months, accounted for about 50% of the global market in 2025, according to InfoLink. All major regions, namely Europe, Asia-Pacific, the Americas and the Middle East, experienced YoY declines in cargo volumes.
Europe exported about 13.11 GW during 2M 2025, shipping 7.31 GW in January (up 22% YoY) and 5.8 GW in February (down 28% YoY).
Chinese module shipments to the Asia Pacific market also dropped 9% YoY to 14.97 GW, shipping 8.74 GW and 6.23 GW in the initial 2 months this year, respectively.
China exported about 3.71 GW of solar modules to the Americas in January 2025, up 3% YoY, and 2.34 GW in February 2025, down 20% annually. Overall, it was a 7% decrease from the 6.05 GW Chinese manufacturers shipped to the region during the 2 reporting months.
The burgeoning Middle East market registered the largest decline in Chinese solar module shipments. About 1.18 GW shipped in January this year represented a 60% YoY decline, while 1.32 GW in February was a 29% YoY drop. The total of around 2.49 GW was a YoY drop of 48%, according to InfoLink.
Africa, on the other hand, is increasing its appetite for Chinese modules since Chinese shipments to this market increased by 110% YoY to about 1.32 GW in January 2025, even though there was a 16% decline in the export volume of 580 MW in the ensuing month. During 2M 2025, Africa imported 1.32 GW of Chinese modules, up 44% YoY.
InfoLink projects the Chinese overseas export volume to decline even further in March and April this year. This will lead to a slight rebound in overseas module prices in the short term. It will reflect as $0.085 to $0.09 in some regions, up from the original level of $0.08 to $0.085. However, module prices will return to a ‘slow downward trend’ during H2 2025.
“With the high-quality development of modules in the second half of the year, the mismatch in demand between the production supply chain and whether the demand for terminal modules can be supported will be the key factor affecting the price throughout the year,” explain InfoLink analysts.
TrendForce also stated the same recently when it said that the installation rush in China is likely to push up spot prices for solar modules to peak at CNY 0.73 ($0.10)/W. Once past their peak, prices may go down to CNY 0.70/W or even lower (see China’s FIT Policy End To Push Up Prices Across PV Value Chain).
