在Hidden Forces的第407集中，Demetri Kofinas与Macro Tourist的Kevin Muir深入探讨了财政支出的影响。他们讨论了财政政策对过去五年投资者表现的重要性，以及为何市场持续低估其影响。Muir和Kofinas还分析了财政紧缩和贸易关税对资产价格、美国股市和美元的潜在影响。节目还涉及了全球股市的轮动风险、欧洲和亚洲的投资机会、美元的下行风险以及中国黄金的对策等话题。

💰 节目首先探讨了财政政策的重要性。Kevin Muir认为，政府支出是过去五年投资者获得超额收益的主要来源。他们讨论了为什么市场经常低估财政政策的影响，而更关注货币政策。

📉 讨论了财政紧缩和贸易关税的潜在影响。嘉宾认为，减少赤字和缩减财政支出可能导致资产价格下跌，美国股市表现不佳，以及美元贬值。

🌍 深入分析了全球市场的投资机会。Muir和Kofinas探讨了全球股市的轮动风险，以及在欧洲和亚洲寻找投资机会的可能性。

💵 节目还关注了美元的未来走势。他们讨论了美元的下行风险，以及对中国黄金市场的潜在影响。

In Episode 407 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with the Macro Tourist’s Kevin Muir about the power of fiscal spending and why fiscal austerity and trade tariffs will lead to lower asset prices, U.S. equity market underperformance, and a falling U.S. dollar.

Kevin and Demetri spend the first hour of this podcast discussing the importance of fiscal policy and why government spending has been one of the biggest sources of outperformance for investors in the last five years. They discuss why that’s the case, why the effects of fiscal policy continue to be overlooked and discounted relative to monetary policy, and what this means going forward if we take the Trump team at his word about wanting to reduce the deficit and scale back on fiscal spending.

In the second hour, Muir and Kofinas dig even deeper into the fiscal spending implications for U.S. equity and bond markets, concerns about rotation risk into global equities, the investment opportunities in Europe and Asia, downside risks to the US dollar, the China gold put, and much more.

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Episode Recorded on 03/24/2025