How would the climate and the environment on our planet change if an asteroid struck? Researchers at the IBS Center for Climate Physics (ICCP) at Pusan National University in South Korea have now tried to answer this question by running several impact simulations with a state-of-the-art Earth system model on their in-house supercomputer. The results show that the climate, atmospheric chemistry and even global photosynthesis would be dramatically disrupted in the three to four years following the event, due to the huge amounts of dust produced by the impact.
Beyond immediate effects such as scorching heat, earthquakes and tsunamis, an asteroid impact would have long-lasting effects on the climate because of the large quantities of aerosols and gases ejected into the atmosphere. Indeed, previous studies on the Chicxulub 10-km asteroid impact, which happened around 66 million years ago, revealed that dust, soot and sulphur led to a global “impact winter” and was very likely responsible for the dinosaurs going extinct during the Cretaceous/Paleogene period.
“This winter is characterized by reduced sunlight, because of the dust filtering it out, cold temperatures and decreased precipitation at the surface,” says Axel Timmermann, director of the ICCP and leader of this new study. “Severe ozone depletion would occur in the stratosphere too because of strong warming caused by the dust particles absorbing solar radiation there.”
These unfavourable climate conditions would inhibit plant growth via a decline in photosynthesis both on land and in the sea and would thus affect food productivity, Timmermann adds.
Something surprising and potentially positive would also happen though, he says: plankton in the ocean would recover within just six months and its abundance could even increase afterwards. Indeed, diatoms (silicate-rich algae) would be more plentiful than before the collision. This might be because the dust created by the asteroid is rich in iron, which would trigger plankton growth as it sinks into the ocean. These phytoplankton “blooms” could help alleviate emerging food crises triggered by the reduction in terrestrial productivity, at least for several years after the impact, explains Timmermann.
The effect of a “Bennu”-sized asteroid impact
In this latest study, published in Science Advances, the researchers simulated the effect of a “Bennu”-sized asteroid impact. Bennu is a so-called medium-sized asteroid with a diameter of around 500 m. This type of asteroid is more likely to impact Earth than the “planet killer” larger asteroids, but has been studied far less.
There is an estimated 0.037% chance of such an asteroid colliding with Earth in September 2182. While this probability is small, such an impact would be very serious, says Timmermann, and would lead to climate conditions similar to those observed after some of the largest volcanic eruptions in the last 100 000 years. “It is therefore important to assess the risk, which is the product of the probability and the damage that would be caused, rather than just the probability by itself,” he tells Physics World. “Our results can serve as useful benchmarks to estimate the range of environmental effects from future medium-sized asteroid collisions.”
The team ran the simulations on the IBS’ supercomputer Aleph using the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 6 (WACCM6). The simulations injected up to 400 million tonnes of dust into the stratosphere.
The climate effects of impact-dust aerosols mainly depend on their abundance in the atmosphere and how they evolve there. The simulations revealed that global mean temperatures would drop by 4° C, a value that’s comparable with the cooling estimated as a result of the Toba volcano erupting around 74 000 years ago (which emitted 2000 Tg (2×1015 g) of sulphur dioxide). Precipitation also decreased 15% worldwide and ozone dropped by a dramatic 32% in the first year following the asteroid impact.
Asteroid impacts may have shaped early human evolution
“On average, medium-sized asteroids collide with Earth about every 100 000 to 200 000 years,” says Timmermann. “This means that our early human ancestors may have experienced some of these medium-sized events. These may have impacted human evolution and even affected our species’ genetic makeup.”
The researchers admit that their model has some inherent limitations. For one, CESM2/WACCM6, like other modern climate models, is not designed and optimized to simulate the effects of massive amounts of aerosol injected into the atmosphere. Second, the researchers only focused on the asteroid colliding with the Earth’s land surface. This is obviously less likely than an impact on the ocean, because roughly 70% of Earth’s surface is covered by water, they say. “An impact in the ocean would inject large amounts of water vapour rather than climate-active aerosols such as dust, soot and sulphur into the atmosphere and this vapour needs to be better modelled – for example, for the effect it has on ozone loss,” they say.
The effect of the impact on specific regions on the planet also needs to be better simulated, the researchers add. Whether the asteroid impacts during winter or summer also needs to be accounted for since this can affect the extent of the climate changes that would occur.
Finally, as well as the dust nanoparticles investigated in this study, future work should also look at soot emissions from wildfires ignited by “impact “spherules”, and sulphur and CO2 released from target evaporites, say Timmermann and colleagues. “The ‘impact winter’ would be intensified and prolonged if other aerosols such as soot and sulphur were taken into account.”
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