少点错误 03月05日
*NYT Op-Ed* The Government Knows A.G.I. Is Coming
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本文回顾了拜登政府在人工智能领域的政策思路,并展望了未来AI发展面临的挑战与机遇。拜登政府的AI顾问Ben Buchanan指出,他们致力于为未来的AI发展奠定基础,即使AI的变革性影响可能不会在他们的任期内完全显现。文章还探讨了当前AI政策辩论的焦点,以及在面对这项可能具有人类历史上最变革性的技术时,政策制定者应如何保持谦逊并采取明智的行动。同时,也提到了芯片出口管制等具体措施,以及人工智能安全研究所等机构的建立,旨在为未来的AI管理做好准备。

🏛️ 拜登政府致力于为AI发展奠定长期基础,认识到AI的真正影响可能在未来才会显现,并强调未来团队需要从国家安全、经济实力和繁荣的角度来解决AI发展带来的问题。

🤝 政策辩论的核心在于,尽管AI被认为是极具变革性的技术,但除了芯片出口管制外,对于具体应采取何种措施,各方尚未达成共识。加速主义者批评现行政策过于宽松,缺乏实质性的约束。

🔬 Ben Buchanan强调,在采取政策行动之前,必须对所采取的行动及其原因有充分的理解。在缺乏明确的14点计划的情况下,保持知识上的谦逊是至关重要的。同时,建立如人工智能安全研究所之类的机构,为未来的AI管理奠定基础。

Published on March 5, 2025 1:53 AM GMT

All around excellent back and forth, I thought, and a good look back at what the Biden admin was thinking about the future of AI.

an excerpt:

[Ben Buchanan, Biden AI adviser:] What we’re saying is: We were building a foundation for something that was coming that was not going to arrive during our time in office and that the next team would have to, as a matter of American national security — and, in this case, American economic strength and prosperity — address.

[Ezra Klein, NYT:] This gets to something I find frustrating in the policy conversation about A.I.

You start the conversation about how the most transformative technology — perhaps in human history — is landing in a two- to three-year time frame. And you say: Wow, that seems like a really big deal. What should we do?

That’s when things get a little hazy. Maybe we just don’t know. But what I’ve heard you kind of say a bunch of times is: Look, we have done very little to hold this technology back. Everything is voluntary. The only thing we asked was a sharing of safety data.

Now in come the accelerationists. Marc Andreessen has criticized you guys extremely straightforwardly.

Is this policy debate about anything? Is it just the sentiment of the rhetoric? If it’s so [expletive] big, but nobody can quite explain what it is we need to do or talk about — except for maybe export chip controls — are we just not thinking creatively enough? Is it just not time? Match the calm, measured tone of this conversation with our starting point.

I think there should be an intellectual humility here. Before you take a policy action, you have to have some understanding of what it is you’re doing and why.

So it is entirely intellectually consistent to look at a transformative technology, draw the lines on the graph and say that this is coming pretty soon, without having the 14-point plan of what we need to do in 2027 or 2028.

 

Chip controls are unique in that this is a robustly good thing that we could do early to buy the space I talked about before. But I also think that we tried to build institutions, like the A.I. Safety Institute, that would set the new team up, whether it was us or someone else, for success in managing the technology.

Now that it’s them, they will have to decide as the technology comes on board how we want to calibrate this under regulation.

What kinds of decisions do you think they will have to make in the next two years?

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人工智能政策 拜登政府 AI安全 技术监管 芯片管制
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