New statistical analyses of the supermassive black hole M87* may explain changes observed since it was first imaged. The findings, from the same Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) that produced the iconic first image of a black hole’s shadow, confirm that M87*’s rotational axis points away from Earth. The analyses also indicate that turbulence within the rotating envelope of gas that surrounds the black hole – the accretion disc – plays a role in changing its appearance.
The first image of M87*’s shadow was based on observations made in 2017, though the image itself was not released until 2019. It resembles a fiery doughnut, with the shadow appearing as a dark region around three times the diameter of the black hole’s event horizon (the point beyond which even light cannot escape its gravitational pull) and the accretion disc forming a bright ring around it.
Because the shadow is caused by the gravitational bending and capture of light at the event horizon, its size and shape can be used to infer the black hole’s mass. The larger the shadow, the higher the mass. In 2019, the EHT team calculated that M87* has a mass of about 6.5 billion times that of our Sun, in line with previous theoretical predictions. Team members also determined that the radius of the event horizon is 3.8 micro-arcseconds; that the black hole is rotating in a clockwise direction; and that its spin points away from us.
Hot and violent region
The latest analysis focuses less on the shadow and more on the bright ring outside it. As matter accelerates, it produces huge amounts of light. In the vicinity of the black hole, this acceleration occurs as matter is sucked into the black hole, but it also arises when matter is blasted out in jets. The way these jets form is still not fully understood, but some astrophysicists think magnetic fields could be responsible. Indeed, in 2021, when researchers working on the EHT analysed the polarization of light emitted from the bright region, they concluded that only the presence of a strongly magnetized gas could explain their observations.
The team has now combined an analysis of ETH observations made in 2018 with a re-analysis of the 2017 results using a Bayesian approach. This statistical technique, applied for the first time in this context, treats the two sets of observations as independent experiments. This is possible because the event horizon of M87* is about a light-day across, so the accretion disc should present a new version of itself every few days, explains team member Avery Broderick from the Perimeter Institute and the University of Waterloo, both in Canada. In more technical language, the gap between observations exceeds the correlation timescale of the turbulent environment surrounding the black hole.
New result reinforces previous interpretations
The part of the ring that appears brightest to us stems from the relativistic movement of material in a clockwise direction as seen from Earth. In the original 2017 observations, this bright region was further “south” on the image than the EHT team expected. However, when members of the team compared these observations with those from 2018, they found that the region reverted to its mean position. This result corroborated computer simulations of the general relativistic magnetohydrodynamics of the turbulent environment surrounding the black hole.
Even in the 2018 observations, though, the ring remains brightest at the bottom of the image. According to team member Bidisha Bandyopadhyay, a postdoctoral researcher at the Universidad de Concepción in Chile, this finding provides substantial information about the black hole’s spin and reinforces the EHT team’s previous interpretation of its orientation: the black hole’s rotational axis is pointing away from Earth. The analyses also reveal that the turbulence within the accretion disc can help explain the differences observed in the bright region from one year to the next.
Very long baseline interferometry
To observe M87* in detail, the EHT team needed an instrument with an angular resolution comparable to the black hole’s event horizon, which is around tens of micro-arcseconds across. Achieving this resolution with an ordinary telescope would require a dish the size of the Earth, which is clearly not possible. Instead, the EHT uses very long baseline interferometry, which involves detecting radio signals from an astronomical source using a network of individual radio telescopes and telescopic arrays spread across the globe.
The facilities contributing to this work were the Atacama Large Millimeter Array (ALMA) and the Atacama Pathfinder Experiment, both in Chile; the South Pole Telescope (SPT) in Antarctica; the IRAM 30-metre telescope and NOEMA Observatory in Spain; the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope (JCMT) and the Submillimeter Array (SMA) on Mauna Kea, Hawai’I, US; the Large Millimeter Telescope (LMT) in Mexico; the Kitt Peak Telescope in Arizona, US; and the Greenland Telescope (GLT). The distance between these telescopes – the baseline – ranges from 160 m to 10 700 km. Data were correlated at the Max-Planck-Institut für Radioastronomie (MPIfR) in Germany and the MIT Haystack Observatory in the US.
“This work demonstrates the power of multi-epoch analysis at horizon scale, providing a new statistical approach to studying the dynamical behaviour of black hole systems,” says EHT team member Hung-Yi Pu from National Taiwan Normal University. “The methodology we employed opens the door to deeper investigations of black hole accretion and variability, offering a more systematic way to characterize their physical properties over time.”
Looking ahead, the ETH astronomers plan to continue analysing observations made in 2021 and 2022. With these results, they aim to place even tighter constraints on models of black hole accretion environments. “Extending multi-epoch analysis to the polarization properties of M87* will also provide deeper insights into the astrophysics of strong gravity and magnetized plasma near the event horizon,” EHT Management team member Rocco Lico, tells Physics World.
The analyses are detailed in Astronomy and Astrophysics.
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