President Donald Trump is floating another taxpayer payout under his second presidential term, funded this time by the proposed savings achieved by his controversial "Department of Government Efficiency," or "DOGE."
Appearing at the Future Investment Initiative Institute Priority Summit on Feb. 19, Trump told attendees: "There’s even a... under consideration, a new concept where we give 20 percent of the DOGE savings to American citizens and 20 percent goes to paying down debt."
The genesis of the idea was not a discerning fiscal move out of Trump's government spending overhaul, but — par for the course under the current administration — a social media post. One day earlier, Elon Musk, leader of the de-facto government department, replied to an X post from James Fishback, CEO of investment firm Azoria and Trump ally, proposing the administration send out tax refund checks to every taxpayer to be known as "DOGE Dividends" and offering to meet with Trump and Musk in Washington, D.C. this week.
Musk's answer: "Will check with the President." One day later, Trump proposed the idea to summit attendees, and only a handful of hours passed before the suggested "stimulus checks round 2" were being discussed as a potential, if not probable, taxpayer benefit — fuel for the DOGE fire.
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Are DOGE dividend checks real?
The short answer? No. DOGE Dividend checks are based on an unofficial proposal by an American businessman and not a federal act or executive order. The checks themselves are based on expected (not yet realized) federal spending cuts.
But that doesn't mean Trump and Musk-led DOGE won't try to make something like it happen as they seek to tackle inflation and balance the federal budget.
"Few in America knew precisely what to expect from DOGE. The early perceived turbulence around leadership, the uncertainty around legal structure, and the lack of precedent for such a bold initiative created a sense of 'show me' with DOGE. Just a month into President Trump’s second term, DOGE is delivering. Full stop," wrote Fishback in his full proposal.
DOGE Dividend checks, according to Fishback's reasoning, would incentivize American taxpayers "to report instances of waste, fraud, and abuse to DOGE, which increases the total amount DOGE saves and increases the size of their DOGE Dividend check. This is appealing to both Musk and Trump, who have led the charge against what they deem "unethical" or "corrupt" spending in a sweeping and what some deem unconstitutional takeover of federal agencies.
But others, including DOGE's proponents, were skeptical. "Love what DOGE is doing, but this is a bad idea. There’s no need to send 'dividend checks.' The dividend we get from slashing spending is that it brings inflation into check. But if the government sends out stimmy checks, inflation will come back with a vengeance," wrote Preston Brashers, a tax policy researcher for the Heritage Foundation.
Rather than seeing dividend checks as another "handout," Fishback argued they would be a form of restitution. "We are returning the peoples' money to them, enabling them to save and pay down debt rather than see it wasted and abused," Fishback said in a reply to another skeptical X user.
How much would you get from a DOGE dividend check?
DOGE has set a goal of eliminating $2 trillion from the federal budget by July 4, 2026. According to Fishback's proposed plan, the Trump administration will take 20 percent of that expected $2 trillion (approximately $400 billion) and split it up by the expected amount of federal tax payers in 2025 (around 79 million U.S. residents).
Based on that rough math, Trump, parroting Fishback's plan, proposed a future $5,000 check per individual taxpayer, a number that would eclipse the $1,400 Economic Impact Payments (also known as stimulus checks) sent out to individuals in 2021.
The real life numbers aren't making it clear if that could even happen. So far, DOGE has reported that it's already uncovered and cut back $16 billion in federal contracts. It's supporters, including Fishback, claim the agency has slashed $1 billion in spending per day. Those numbers are widely disputed.
